Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, January 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCB TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TO NEAR
APALACHICOLA.  AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
EVENING...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE AMOUNT OF CAPE
REMAINS LIMITED...AT MOST 500 J/KG...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THE 55 KNOT 850 JET RESULTS IN 0-1 KM
HELICITIES FOR SURFACE BASED OR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OF
150-250 M2/S2...CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ERADICATED
AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...WITH WET BULB ZERO VALUES RISING TO
ABOVE 11KFT.  THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY REMAINS THE WILD CARD AND
POWERFUL LIMITING FACTOR...AND THE LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT BECOMES AN
INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR AS WELL.  SO...COULD BE
SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LINE AS THE WARM FRONT BRIEFLY MOVES ONSHORE.  CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EARLY ON BEFORE THE SOUNDING
MOISTENS COMPLETELY AND WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS DESPITE
THE INCREASING LIMITING FACTORS.  DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ADVANCES EASTWARD...WITH A
RETURN FLOW LIFTING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS SYSTEM EJECTS TO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SMALL POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  AFTER WARM DAYS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.  AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  58  34  64 / 100  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  57  37  62 / 100  05  10  10
DESTIN      48  58  42  61 / 100  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   44  58  27  65 / 100  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  36  54  26  63 /  90  05  10  10
CAMDEN      38  53  28  64 / 100  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

29 EVERSOLE
13 CULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-312000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
457 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH LOUISIANA TODAY INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.  TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  AS THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TRAVEL EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH RAIN ENDING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 FROM
WAYNESBORO TO ANDALUSIA.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30
KNOTS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO
THE NORTHWEST.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION AND MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

MSZ075-078-312245-
STONE-PERRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW AUGUSTA AND WIGGINS...
405 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF STONE
AND PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS 24 MILES WEST OF WIGGINS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL ARRIVE AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY BY
420 PM AND AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WIGGINS...WHITES
CROSSING...BELLEVILLE...JANICE...MAHNED AND NEW AUGUSTA THROUGH 445
PM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH COULD DO DAMAGE
TO WEAK STRUCTURES...DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW
AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.