Hail in Wisconsin, May 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
211 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVG CFNT OVR WRN MN CONTS TO EDGE EWD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN A ZONE JUST AHD OF THE FNT EARLY THIS AFTN...WITH
BEST CHC OF SVR OVR CENT PLAINS INVOF HIGHER TEMPS/DPTS. SEE
LATEST SWODY1 DISC FOR DETAILS. MODERATE AMT OF INSTAB OVR OUR CWA
THIS AFTN AND APPROACHING CFNT COULD STILL RESULT IN ISOLD SVR
CELLS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. SFC LI/S AS LOW AS -3 AND SFC BASED CAPE
UP TO 1000 J/KG. CFNT WILL MOVE THRU OUR CWA ON THU AS FNTL WAVE
RIDES UP THE FNT...BRINGING PLENTY OR RAIN TO ERN HALF OF OUR
CWA...WHERE AMTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGMT ON THIS SCENARIO. SHORT BREAK EXPECTED ON FRI UNDER DRY SLOT
BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV EMERGES FROM THE L/WV TROF AND HEADS TWRD THE
GRT LKS. THIS WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SFC SYSTEM THAT
WILL KEEP RAIN CHCS IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM
MAY DEPART SOON ENUF FOR SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY SUN AFTN...THEN MON
LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PUSHES IN AGN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN
THESE AREAS. A FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS INCLUDING KINL TO KBRD...AND REACH KHIB TO KDLH BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
WITH AREAS OF FOG PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  58  39  62 /  50  70  10  10
INL  48  57  37  54 /  30  50  10  10
BRD  49  59  41  63 /  30  60  10  20
HYR  56  66  43  65 /  60  70  10  10
ASX  56  63  44  64 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

04/LILES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

LSZ121-140>148-162-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-241030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI
TO GRAND PORTAGE MN-KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-
NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-
SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-
SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-
ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
354 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
SMALL HAIL. NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THIS EVENING.

04