Hail in Wisconsin, May 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

...DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT- POTENT UPPER LOW WITH 55 UNIT VORT AT 500 MB PER 12Z NAM
WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN LOW TO MID LEVELS BENEATH -30 C 500 MB COLD CORE
RESULTING IN VERTICAL TOTALS/850-500 MB LAPSE RATES/ TO ABOUT 29.

THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS MAINLY THE
CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE LOTS OF PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL...PERHAPS A FEW PENNY OR NICKEL STONES BEFORE THE TROUGH
SWINGS BY AROUND 03Z.

SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN COMMA HEAD OVER ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...SO LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF CWA LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WILL DIP INTO UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVERNIGHT THOUGH RATHER
BRISK WINDS JUST ABOVE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM FORMING.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - LARGE POLAR HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW LARGE DIURNALS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN SPOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FROST PROBABLY NOT WORTH
MENTIONING YET.

SATURDAY - WEAK SHORT WAVE TOPPING THE CENTRAL US RIDGE WILL TRY
TO DIVE INTO BACKSIDE OF DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS SHOULD DRAG
A WEST-EAST FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
DAY WITH PLUME OF +13 TO +15 850 MB AIR ALLOWING LOWER 80S OVER
THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - SOUTHWARD MOVING WEST-EAST FRONT WILL
GET TYPICAL BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND ACCELERATE DOWN THE
EASTERN PART OF CWA. PREFER GFS TIMING THROUGH 84 HOURS VERSUS
NAM12...SO EXPECT IT TO CLEAR ILLINOIS BORDER BY 12Z.

THUS...QUITE A BIT COOLER ESPECIALLY EAST ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKE.

MONDAY - UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RETURN
FLOW FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE
RATHER INTENSE SO EAST SHOULD REMAIN COOLER. HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF
HAD 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO +16. SO ONLY UPPER 60S EAST BUT
EXPECT LOWER 80S OR HIGHER AGAIN IN THE WEST.

TUESDAY - UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHIFT
FROM PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEST. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND 12Z GFS HAS
TRENDED SLOWER. THUS...TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AND +16 TO
+18 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST 85 TO 90 FOR HIGHS. GIVEN THE
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN LAKE BREEZE AND INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST...HAVE THE WARMEST READINGS IN THE MID
80S OVER CENTRAL ZONES.

WEDNESDAY - CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS THAT THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY AS
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WITH DEEP/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH.

CRAVEN

&&

.AVIATION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD
THRU SRN WI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TSTMS BREAKING OUT
WEST OF KMSN AT 20Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
REACHING KMKE AROUND 21-22Z. DUE TO SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-26 TO
-28C AT 500MB/...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS UNTIL 01-02Z. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STORMS TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH. PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR
RANGE...OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE DURING -TSRA/-SHRA.
SHOWERS TO LINGER UNTIL 06Z WHEN SOME DRIER AIR BRINGS A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY.

MAF

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FOWLE/03 - AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1115 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-171045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1115 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WISCONSIN WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 1 PM...THEN TRACK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL...WITH LARGER HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-171045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1115 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND SMALL HAIL...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FOWLE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             REEDSBURG               43.53N 90.00W
05/16/2007  E0.25 INCH       SAUK               WI   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL FELL FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES.

0343 PM     HAIL             2 N BARABOO             43.50N 89.74W
05/16/2007  E0.25 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 PM     HAIL             4 NE REEDSBURG          43.58N 89.94W
05/16/2007  E0.50 INCH       SAUK               WI   PUBLIC

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
414 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             1 W MERRIMAC            43.37N 89.65W
05/16/2007  M0.50 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
422 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             LODI                    43.32N 89.53W
05/16/2007  E0.25 INCH       COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DRH