Hail and Damaging Wind in West Virginia, September 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS
WEEKEND WITH COOL WEATHER LASTING ONLY FRIDAY...BEFORE A WARMUP
ENSUES BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
AREAWIDE RAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVING NE THROUGH THE FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF A STRONGER...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIGGING IN FROM
THE NW...WILL ACT UPON AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS GETTING WET
AT SOME POINT.  THESE SHORT WAVES ARE QUITE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER SOUTHERN IL AND EASTERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING.  TRAILING
PORTIONS OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT HAS ALREADY GONE THROUGH
THE AREA CONTINUES TO CAUSE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
JUST E OF THE OH RIVER AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITHIN FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY W
KY ARRIVES FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW.  THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
HAS ACTUALLY EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.  EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME TENDENCY FOR
PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL PROLONG OR REINVIGORATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING W TO E
THIS EVENING.

WHILE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT THUNDER...EVEN THE
NAM12 SHOWS MUCH LESS CAPE THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY.  WITH LESS
SUNSHINE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE NIL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF ONE TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE WELCOME IF NOT
LEAVING US THIRSTY FOR MORE.

MAIN SHORT WAVE KICKS FRONT AND PRECIPITATION EASTWARD TONIGHT.
CLEARING MOVING FROM WEST TO E WILL GET SLOWED UP FOR A TIME IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF WV LATER TONIGHT...OWING TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE E TODAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
W...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.  LITTLE
CHANGE MADE TO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE HIGHER
MET/MAV...THE FWC BEING THE ODD SET OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
JUST SOME CLEANING UP TO THE GRIDS IN WAKE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
FRI MRNG AS THE LAST RW DEPART ERN ZONES.  GFS AND NAM ARE FINALLY
AT A CONSENSUS WRT H5 TROF AXIS SWEEPING THRU THE MID OH VLY DURING
THE DAY FRI.  BL RH IS LOW THEREFORE NO QPF IS EXPECTED.  BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FM NAM WAS USED TO GET WIND GUST IN THE LOW 20 MPH
RANGE OVER THE LLNDS /30S ON THE RIDGES/.  LIKE THE GFS IDEA OF
MSNNY CONDS DURING PEAK HEATING HRS WITH FEW-SCT CU N.  NAM SEEMS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH BKN-OVC SKY COVER.

BENIGN WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IN CONTROL.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG.  H8 TEMPS
CONT TO COME IN HIGHER SAT AND SUN...SO INCREASED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
EAST AND WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY....WITH GFS INDICATING
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION.  LIKE HPC IDEA
OF KEEPING BOUNDARY OUT OF AREA...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR
DAY 4-7 GUIDANCE.

ONLY CHANGE TO THEIR GUIDANCE WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN LOWER THE POPS FOR THURSDAY.  HAVE ALSO LIMITED ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WEST OF CRW AND CKB THIS MORNING...AND A
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR CRW...BKW...EKN
AND CKB THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED AT PKB AND HTS THRU 22Z. THEN...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
COULD AFFECT HTS AND PKB FROM 01-05Z TIME FRAME.

IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. LOW
STRATUS DECK AROUND 12KFT COULD LINGER AFTER SHOWERS
PASS...LINGERING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECTED TO MIX
DRIER...COOLER AIR PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED AREAS WILL FOG
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD MIX UP BEHIND THE FRONT THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...18Z FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER AREAS THAT PREVIOUSLY RECEIVED RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/29
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
701 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-281115-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
701 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

29 / TRM