Hail and Damaging Wind in West Virginia, March 14, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER WEATHER...WITH A
TASTE OF WINTER BY THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR DOESNT LAST LONG AS A
WARMUP IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG RA HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND CWA IS UNDER A BKN CU FIELD
ATT.  TEMPS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH LWR 70S IN THE TRI STATE.  DRY
FCST CONTS TO LOOK GOOD FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA TNGT.  TRW ARE
MVNG NE ACR SRN IND AND SHOULD REACH SERN OH BY MID EVNG...WHILE TCU
ARE BUILDING IN AN UNSTABLE ATMS ACR ERN KY...SO WL BE WATCHING
THESE RW AS THEY HEAD TWRD WRN WV.  A BUILDING MID LVL RDG SHOULD
PROTECT MOST OF WV TNGT.

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THUR AS NCEP MDLS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
RESOLVING FROPA.  GFS/SREF WERE THE CHOSEN SLTNS THIS CYCLE...SO THE
FRONT REACHES THE OH RVR ARND 11Z/I-79 15Z/ MTNS 16Z.  LTL ACTIVITY
IS FORESEEN IN THE WARM SECTOR SINCE THIS FRONT IS MORE ANAFRONT IN
STRUCTURE.  POPS WERE RAISED TO CAT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR.  HIGHS WL BE REACHED IN THE W ARND DAWN WITH A FALLING TREND
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  SAME GOES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LLNDS...SAVE FOR TEMPS WL BE FALLING IN THE AFTN. THE MTNS WL BE THE
WARMEST OF ALL TMRW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE THU NIGHT AND FRI. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH COLD H8 AIR MASS RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
ABOUT MINUS 8 DEG CELSIUS BY FRI EVENING . THESE TEMPERATURES AND
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AIDED
BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HPC SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY 12Z SAT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINTER MAKES AN ENCORE APPEARANCE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TRIED TO HOLD ONTO POPS SATURDAY LONGER WITH MAJOR TROF AXIS AND
COLD MINUS 10 850 AIR PASSING.  CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE
YEAR...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE MORE CELLULAR THAN SOLID
OVERCAST. STILL HAVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ACTION STILL FIGURED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.  WENT WITH HPC MEDIUM RANGE WITH SOME POPS NOW WITH THIS
FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 5-7. WARM UP SHOULD
BE MAIN THEME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR WX LIFTS TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT SOME LINGERING CU ARND 025 IS
FCST UNTIL THE EVNG.  AS A COLD FRONT DROPS S FM NRN OH AND
IND...MOST OF THE AIRPORTS WILL BE RAIN FREE UNTIL IT ARRIVES.  THE
FIRST ROUND OF WET WX ARRIVES ALONG THE OH RVR AFT MDNGT...WITH A
HIGH PROB OF MVFR WX BY 10Z AT PKB AND HTS.  THE FRONT SLOWLY MVS SE
REACHING CRW-CKB BTWN 14-15Z...AND THE MTNS BY 15-16Z.  ANY PCPN WL
BE CONFINED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE N IN
WAKE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  TSTM CHCS LOOK SMALL ENOUGH TO REMOVE
EVEN THE CB MENTION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM/ IFR POSSIBLE IN CEILING AND VSBY THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM/ NO SIG WX XPCTD

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
331 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
331 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. IF THIS RAIN IS REALIZED...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...FOR
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
427 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

WVZ024-025-142100-
LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-
427 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR LOGAN AND MINGO COUNTIES...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOGAN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
WEST OF WILLIAMSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
436 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

KYZ105-WVZ005-142100-
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE WV-
436 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY AND WAYNE COUNTY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY...OR ABOUT 6
MILES NORTH OF INEZ...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

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