Hail in West Virginia, July 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA...AND A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES
PASSING THROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.  A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL COME SAILING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS NEAR CKB...EKN...AND PKB THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA. STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY
ALLOWING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WAYNE AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH DYING FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH...AND A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOWLANDS TO THE
LOW 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THE
WARMER FWC GUIDANCE. FOR MONDAY HIGHS...WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET AND
MAV WHICH DIFFER 1 OR 2 DEGREES FROM EACH OTHER.

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER
AREAS THAT REMAIN WET DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF
SKIES CLEAR SOME ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THIS SETUP...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE GRIPS OF A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AS A
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE FOR AIRMASS TCU
DEVELOPMENT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REPRESENT A MORE STABLE
SCENARIO UNDER THE RIDGE...INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE.
LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...BUT KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
DRY...FAVORING THE DOMINANCE OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

DID NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE RELATIVE AGREEMENT BY THE TWO SETS OF
GUIDANCE VALUES...AND TWEAKED FOR SOME LOCAL INFLUENCES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
DOMINANCE...AND WILL KEEP CONVECTION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTER THE REGION...AND
TOUCHED THE POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS
WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...ALL
EYES WILL BE ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM TREKKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE LONG TERM AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA...AS A SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS. NEAR
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING PROVIDED ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING TO ENHANCE
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
AFFECTING CKB...PKB...AND EKN THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH ALLOWING EACH STORM TO DUMP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TO AFFECT THE VICINITY OF HTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF THE STORMS WILL HIT THE SITE DIRECTLY SO DID
NOT MENTIONED THEM IN HTS TAF.

A SMALLER SECONDARY WAVE WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING.

VARIABLE CLOUDS LEAD TO AN UNCLEAR PICTURE FOR TONIGHT...BUT
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW HOURS OF IFR FOG
AROUND 08Z-12Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KBKW. KEKN WILL LIKELY DROP TO
LIFR.

12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE NIGHTS INTO
EARLY MORNINGS FOR FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...AND LIFR POSSIBLE AT
KEKN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-300730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

WVZ031-032-291830-
TAYLOR WV-HARRISON WV-
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 157 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SHINNSTON...AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
  ROSEMONT...MEADLAND...MCGEE AND ENTERPRISE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GIVEN THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE
STORM...COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

26