Washington, 2007

Avalanche in Washington, December 18, 2007

December 18, 2007 · NWS SEW · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A man died in an avalanche while hiking near Mount Rainier.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

A man died in an avalanche while hiking near Mount Rainier.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 9:30 AM PST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 18, 9:30 AM PST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PST TUE DEC 18 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS AND SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 6 TO 11 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW POSSIBLE. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND TOMORROW WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY THEN A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SERIES OF STORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
WASHINGTON OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT SPREADING RAIN THROUGH THE LOWLANDS WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SFC LOW CENTER AT 996MB LOCATED JUST OF THE
WA COAST AND WILL HEAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWS SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
INTERIOR. SHOULD SEE RAIN TURING OVER TO SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TROUGH. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE INTERIOR ON EAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE OREGON COAST HEADING NE. AS FOR THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE
CASCADES...WILL LET IT RUN AS SCHEDULED WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 850MB UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES TO
30KTS. WILL DECIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO KILL IT OR EXTEND IT
PAST 10 PM PST THIS EVENING.

WEDNESDAY...WET AND WINDY. MODELS SHOWING A STACKED SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARD VANCOUVER ISLAND BY 18Z WED WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS ALONG
THE COAST AND NW INTERIOR. A PEEK AT THE NEW 12Z RUNS...NAM12 SHOWS
THE SFC LOW STILL JUST RIGHT OFF THE VANCOUVER COAST AT 00Z WHILE
THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER. AND BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z THE LOW MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER THE STRAIT OF GEORGIA...WITH PRETTY GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENTS THROUGH THE INTERIOR. WILL CONSIDER BUMPING UP
THE WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
25-35 GUST 50 MPH WHICH WILL PLACE US IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE SNOW IN THE CASCADES DURING THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER WEATHER BY THE EVENING. 33

LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A
GOOD 18 HOUR BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NW. SO I HAVE PULLED POPS/RAIN OUT
OF THE GRIDS AND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING FOR NOW.
LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD VERY WELL END UP DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH INCOMING
FRONT IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO PIN THE TIMING DOWN THAT WELL. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION SAT MORNING
BEGINNING AS LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS BEFORE QUICKLY
SWITCHING TO RAIN. AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO GET THAT DETAILED IN THE
FORECAST.

THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE ON
SUNDAY AND CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING IT WILL BE WETTER AND
WINDIER. THROUGH SATURDAY THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE RATHER
CONSISTENT AND IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...HOWEVER FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. THEREFORE WILL MENTION A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
BUT NOT MENTION STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST 15Z WILL
MOVE OVER EASTERN WA 00Z. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN WA 00Z. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER
WESTERN WA WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS QUITE MOIST...AREAS OF RAIN
THROUGH 20Z WILL GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS TO OVC020-030 WITH LOCAL LOWER
CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KSEA...CIGS ARE STILL HANGING ABOVE OVC040...BUT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA PRETTY MUCH THROUGH 20Z...WILL STICK
WITH THE TREND OF LOWERING CIGS. NOT CERTAIN THAT CIGS WILL GO BELOW
BKN020 AFTER 19Z THOUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM E TO S BY 20Z. KAM

.MARINE...THE 992 MB SURFACE LOW ABOUT 60W GRAYS HARBOR AT 15Z WILL
MOVE NE OVER THE OLYMPICS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN UP OVER SOUTHERN
B.C. THIS EVENING...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. OVERALL JUST UNDER GALE
WINDS ONE THE COAST THOUGH LOCAL AREAS COULD STILL GET MARGINAL GALE
WINDS. TATOOSH IS RIGHT AT GALE. SCA LOOKS OK FOR PUGET SOUND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT LESS GOOD FOR THE N INTERIOR. INLAND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL GET SORT OF LOST IN
THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NEXT STRONG FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. FROPA COAST
PROBABLY AROUND 15Z...AROUND 18Z PUGET SOUND/N INTERIOR. BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATE A BACK-BENT OCCLUSION THAT WILL HIT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...03Z CENTRAL COAST AND 06Z PUGET SOUND. SEAS ON
THE COAST SHOULD GET UP TO 20 FT BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. KAM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CASCADES.
.GALE WARNING COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL REMAINING WATERS.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes

When
December 18, 12:00 PM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where
West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

A man died in an avalanche while hiking near Mount Rainier.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Avalanche, West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes2007-12-1822MaleOutside/Open AreasDirect

What these are

Avalanche
A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, December 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 67955.