A warm and moist air mass settled over the Mid Atlantic as a strong cold front approached the region from the Ohio Valley on July 19th. This allowed scattered thunderstorms to develop across north central Virginia during the early afternoon hours and spread east into Maryland through the evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A warm and moist air mass settled over the Mid Atlantic as a strong cold front approached the region from the Ohio Valley on July 19th. This allowed scattered thunderstorms to develop across north central Virginia during the early afternoon hours and spread east into Maryland through the evening. Several of these storms became severe, producing damaging winds that downed trees and power lines across the region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 19, 9:32 AM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1032 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT NEARS THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS FROM A DECAYING MCS HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE OLD MCS HAS BEGUN TO BREAK...ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS AND MAX T A BIT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... GDNC CONSISTENT THAT FROPA WL BE OVNGT. HWVR...XPCT ACTIVITY TAFTN/EVE AS LEE TROF DVLPS IN A MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTBL AMS. ONCE AGN...AMT OF CLDCVR /DEBRIS FM ONGOING ACTIVITY/ MAY HINDER NXT ROUND OF TSTM DVLPMNT. BUT UNLIKE YDA...TOO MANY FACTORS IN FAVOR OF TSTMS. SO...ITLL BECOME A QSTN OF HOW BAD WL THEY BE...NOT IF THEY WL FORM. AS ALREADY ALLUDED TO... INSTABILITY MDT BUT NOT EXTREME. BUT...30-40KT OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LYR /TWD 00Z TNGT/ SHUD BE ABLE TO COMBINE W/ OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES...LLVL FORCING FM CDFNT/LEE TROF...AND S/WV ENERGY TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF TSRA AHD OF FRNTL BNDRY. ALSO...THX TO PRE-FRNTL TROF...HODOGRAPHS HV THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY INTERESTING. SPC HAS INCLUDED A LARGE SWATH INVOF CDFNT IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLK. THAT FCST LOGICAL. IN REGARDS TO TIMING...GDNC POINTING TO NRN/WRN CWFA FOR THE AFTN HRS /AFTR CURRENT STUFF DWINDLES/...W/ STORMS THEN PROPAGATING OFF MTNS E TO I-95 THIS EVNG. DRIER AIR WL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN PREDAWN TNGT...W/ MAYBE SOME CLRG EVIDENT IN PTMC HIGHLANDS BEFORE SUN-UP. FOR THE MOST PART...THE DRYING WL BE THE FIRST COMPONENT OF THE LONG TERM FCST. MOS GDNC SURPRISINGLY WARM GIVEN THREAT OF CLDCVR. HV SHIED AWAY FM MID-UPR 90S SUGGESTED BY MAV. EVEN MET WUD RESULT IN A WARMER FCST THAN PRVS ISSUANCE. HV OPTED TO COMPROMISE FOR MAXT TDA. SAME GOES FOR MIN-T TNGT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AM EXPECTING ANY REMAINING CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING AT 8 AM TO BE CONFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF WESTMINSTER...DULLES AIRPORT...AND CHARLOTTESVILLE. AND THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT IN THE MORNING TO THE EAST. FRIDAY WILL SEE NNW WINDS BRINGING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM A CANADIAN AIRMASS. AS FOR THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SCT TSRA COULD BREAK OUT IN CENTRAL VA AND LOWER S MD BUT EXPECTING MOST OF THAT THREAT TO BE S OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL STILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC AND SLGHT CHC POPS FRI AFTERNOON IN OUR SE AND S. AFTER THAT...SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE A PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUR COOLEST IN AT LEAST TWO WEEKS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...THAT COULD INSTIGATE SOME MORE CLOUDS OR EVEN INSTAB SHOWERS IF GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES OUT AND IS REPLACED BY MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TAFS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. EXPECT THE ALL TERMINAL SITES TO BE IMPACTED BY BY SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER. && .MARINE... WNDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN SWLY FLOW AHD OF CDFNT TDA. MEAN LYR MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS 20-25 KT AVBL. HWVR...LOCAL WRF-ARW MDL KEEPING WNDS ARND 15 KT. WL GO W/ THAT FCST ATTM DUE TO FVRBL MDL PERFORMANCE. HIER WNDS/WVS XPCTD INVOF TSRA...AND WUD XPCT SMW/S WL BE REQD. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE NORTHERLY CHANNELING DOWN THE BAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN GUST WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SAT. OTHERWISE... NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1035 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-201000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 1035 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 157 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 VAZ041-191845- FAUQUIER VA- 157 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTY... AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF TURNBULL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF WARRENTON AND BEALETON WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. GMS
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:58 UTC.
6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Trained Spotter reported trees down on Route 340 between Stanley and Luray.
Virginia Department of Highways reported trees down in Sumerduck and Remington.
Culpeper County Emergency Management reported trees down in Culpeper and a tree down on Route 29 east of town.
Law Enforcement Officers reported a tree down at the intersection of Plank Road and Elys Ford Road in Chancellorsville.
An Automated Surface Observation at Quantico Marine Corps Airfield measured a wind gust of 63 mph.
A Trained Spotter reported numerous trees down in Fairview Beach.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 47582, 47583, 47584, 47585, 47586, 47587.