Lightning Strike in Arkansas, July 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
355 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE FOUR STATE REGION REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
AREA WIDE LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO LATE SATURDAY...WHEN CHANCES
START TO EBB. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF ALONG WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE SW...AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PAN HANDLES OF TX AND OK CONTINUE TO DRAW A RICH
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE NORTH. WAVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE SW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THEY MOVE
NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE AREA. THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE
IN BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
SW U.S. ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO CANADA...AND ANOTHER HIGH THAT
EXPANDS FROM LA ACROSS FL. BY LATE FRIDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NW WILL EXPAND EAST AND AMPLIFY NORTH WHILE THE
HIGH IN THE GULF WEAKENS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES SE AROUND
AN EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO SE STATES. BY SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL BE
BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH THE WESTERN END
PIVOTING AND REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEEKEND BUT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM THE WESTERN GULF NW INTO TX
UNDERNEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LESS RAINFALL AND CLOUDS
UNDER BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE FIRST
OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND DEW POINTS WILL LOWER.
TOWARD MID WEEK A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE SE STATES AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND IT TRANSLATES WEST WITH RAIN CHANCES MORE
COMMON IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF AREA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH AT 15-20
KNOTS. EXPECT BRIEF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS
BUT ELSEWHERE CEILINGS 8-10K FT THE RULE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO DIE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND AREA LOOKING AT MOSTLY VFR CLOUD
CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK FOR WEEKEND... CONVECTION INCREASING AND LOOKING
AT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHWRS/TSTMS. /01/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  71  89 /  20  50  30  40
MLU  73  91  71  90 /  20  50  30  40
DEQ  71  89  70  89 /  20  50  30  40
TXK  73  90  71  90 /  20  50  30  40
ELD  72  90  71  89 /  20  50  30  40
TYR  72  88  72  90 /  20  50  30  40
GGG  72  88  70  90 /  20  50  30  40
LFK  72  87  71  89 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-D191100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1215 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 25 MPH. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

06