A weak trough of low pressure lingered across the Mid Atlantic on July 15th. This combined with typical summertime heat and humidity allowed scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the eastern face of the Blue Ridge Mountains in northwestern Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A weak trough of low pressure lingered across the Mid Atlantic on July 15th. This combined with typical summertime heat and humidity allowed scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the eastern face of the Blue Ridge Mountains in northwestern Virginia. A few of these storms became severe, producing damaging winds and large hail across Frederick, Clarke and Fauquier Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 1:59 PM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 259 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS EVENING AND THEN WEAKEN AND STALL OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... LATEST SURFACE MAP ALONG WITH THE RADAR LOOP SHOWS A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THEN TRAILING INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS NW CORNER OF CWA...NORTHWEST MD/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SREF NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE THIS EVENING HOWEVER WRF-ARW/NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO CONVECTION UNTIL 3 AM. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... DEWPTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS STALLED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. CAPE MORE IMPRESSIVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PULSE CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A CUT-OFF LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL CARVE OUT A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS HELPING TO USHER IN MORE HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IN PLACE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...KEPT THE IDEA OF MOST ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BUT AS THE TIME DRAWS CLOSER WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THE DAY4-7 PERIOD...WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE BASIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER ERN NOAM AND THE ERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION IN A WESTERLY TO NW-ERLY FLOW REGIME. TIMING OF FEATURES IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TRICK AND PROBLEMATIC...COMPLICATED BY ANY MCS DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURRS COMING OUT OF THE UPPER MID- WEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...A DIGGING SHOT OF ENERGY MOVES SW TOWARD THE REGION AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH. THIS HELPS DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON THU. THIS FRONT OOZES SOUTH ON THU AND THU NIGHT THEN STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL VA ON FRI. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE/ENERGY MOVES SW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN. HOWEVER...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT THAT FAR SOUTH...OVER SERN VA AND CENTRAL NC. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR FIR SAT AND SUN IS NOT GREAT...BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD HANG FURTHER NORTH...KEEPING MORE MOISTURE IN THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NORTHERN AREAS...FROM KMRB NORTH AND WEST...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT KCHO OR IN AREAS THAT GET TSRA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GUST TO 20 KT EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BAY OTHERWISE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...RW NEAR TERM...RW SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM...BJL/SMZ AVIATION...BJL/RW/SMZ MARINE...BJL/RW/SMZ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 347 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-161000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 347 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...AND IN MARYLAND ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE IN NORTHERN MARYLAND FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MINIMAL THREAT EXISTS THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 8 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DAILY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. SMZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 507 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 WVZ050-152145- HAMPSHIRE WV- 507 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... AT 507 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF KIRBY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF AUGUSTA...DELRAY...YELLOW SPRING...CAPON SPRINGS...LEHEW AND HIGH VIEW WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. GMS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 VAZ027-028-152230- SHENANDOAH VA-FREDERICK VA- 548 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SHENANDOAH AND FREDERICK COUNTIES... AT 548 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF HIGH VIEW MANOR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODSTOCK IN SHENANDOAH COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF STEPHENS CITY...WILDE ACRES...MOUNTAIN FALLS...HARMONY...AND WINCHESTER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. GMS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 554 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 MDZ004-152300- FREDERICK MD- 554 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FREDERICK COUNTY... AT 554 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MIDDLETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF FREDERICK...BOLIVAR...WALKERSVILLE AND NEW MARKET WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. GMS
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 63 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:18 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Frederick County Emergency Management reported a tree down on Fairfax Pike east of Stephens City, VA.
Clarke County Law Enforcement reported a tree down across Route 50.
Fauquier County Fire and Rescue Department reported penny size hail between Airlie and Warrenton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 47537, 47538, 47539.