Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, November 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES ABOUT 1600...LI/S ABOUT -5...AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY 00Z TO A LINE FROM
ELD...SHV...TO LFK. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL LA THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO
INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA...AND TO
ADJUST THE POPS A LITTLE TO REFLECT CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FSM...TO HUGO OK...TO JUST W OF
GVT...TO INJ AS OF 16Z...AND WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY SE INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING A TXK...TO GGG...TO DKR LINE
AROUND 21Z...AND AN ELD...TO SHV...TO LFK LINE BY 00Z. BKN MVFR
CIGS /FL015-020/ WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT...BECOMING VFR
AROUND MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED HEATING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN POCKETS OF CLEARING/ENHANCED HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WILL LIKELY TEMPO IN THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL TERMINALS WITH THE FROPA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NNW
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS
TAPERING A BIT OVERNIGHT. POST FRONTAL STRATOCU /FL015/ WILL
LIKELY SPILL S BEHIND THE FRONT...SCATTERING OUT FROM N TO S
BETWEEN 12-18Z THURSDAY. N WINDS OF 10-15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...TAPERING
OFF BY 00Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THIN CIRRUS SHIELD WILL QUICKLY
TRAVERSE E ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH THESE HIGH BASED CIGS
LOWERING TO AROUND 12KFT AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  43  56  38 /  50  50  10  10
MLU  79  43  54  38 /  50  70  10  10
DEQ  73  35  54  32 /  40  30  10  10
TXK  74  39  55  35 /  70  40  10  10
ELD  78  40  54  33 /  70  60  10  10
TYR  74  38  52  37 /  40  30  10  20
GGG  77  38  52  36 /  40  40  10  10
LFK  81  43  58  40 /  40  50  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1140 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...
IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ARE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE CONVECTION WILL START ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA...BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

03