Dust Storm and High Wind in Texas, February 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...
AT 300 AM...PACIFIC FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND SFC TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLA/TX BIG COUNTRY. A FEW MID-LVL
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
SPLNS ATTM...BUT THE THREAT OF TSTMS HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. THE
HIGH WIND THREAT IS NEXT ON THE TABLE. WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS ALREADY INDICATE SOME MIXING OF STRONG
WINDS...30 TO 40 MPH TO THE SFC AND THIS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO OUR FCST FOR TODAY AS WE EXPECT VERY
STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. INTENSIFYING UPR LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND PRODUCE A VERY STRONG HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW SHOULD FAVOR THE SRN COUNTIES FOR THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
THUS STRONGEST WINDS...BUT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH
APPEARS TO BE SMALL. THE 0Z NAM SHOWS 850MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA FROM 15-18Z. SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTN AND THUS EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SFC WINDS
FROM NW TO SE BY 21-0Z BUT WILL NOT LOOK FOR A BIG REDUCTION UNTIL
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DECOUPLE NEAR SUNSET. WILL MAINTAIN FCST OF
AROUND 30 TO 45 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60-65 MPH POSSIBLE
FOR ALL ZONES/COUNTIES. HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DUST. THE
COMBINATION OF DIRT LOFTED FROM THE NM/NRN MX DESERTS AND FROM MORE
LOCAL UNPLANTED FIELDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK. WILL NOT ISSUE A DUST
STORM WARNING ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
1/4 MILE BUT SOMETHING NEXT SHIFT MAY CONSIDER.

AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW PASSES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WE MAY
SEE SOME RAIN-SHOWERS ADVANCE SE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AND POSSIBLY
REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THESE SHOWERS...BUT HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD LOWER TEMPS SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECTING ABOUT A
10-15 DEGREE DROPOFF IN TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS IN STORE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT EXPECT LOWS TO BE NEAR AVG WITH WESTERLY
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS
POTENT STORM SYSTEM CRANKS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. FAST MID LEVEL
FLOW AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN BY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION WIDE. SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOONS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT WINDY DAY AS GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE
CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. ONCE MID WEEK TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH NORTH OF WEST TEXAS A COOLER AIRMASS WILL KNOCK AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK LOOKS HIGH AND
DRY. JW
&&

.AVIATION...
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT OPERATIONS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS
TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTN AT
KLBB...POSSIBLE LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING AT KCDS. A GRADUAL
SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY.

IN ADDITION...AREAS OF DUST MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR CAT AT
BOTH TERMINALS...AND POSSIBLY INTO IFR AT KLBB. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER 0Z.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO WEST TEXAS BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW
15 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING AFTER TRIMMING OUT
LUBBOCK COUNTY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  27  63  32  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  28  61  33  62 /  10   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     55  30  63  33  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  29  66  33  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       60  31  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  31  66  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  31  65  32  64 /  20   0   0   0  10
SPUR          60  32  67  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  33  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039>041.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ033-034-039>041.

&&

33/13/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

TXZ021>044-251200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
551 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH
BY LATE MORNING. DAMAGING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS
SEVERELY LIMITING VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS. VISIBILITY COULD DROP
AS LOW AS ONE-HALF MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS AND DUST
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS FOR
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAND MANAGERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

JW