A supercell thunderstorm producing severe weather moved southeast out of Dickey county North Dakota and brought damaging winds, large hail, along with a brief tornado to northern Brown county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABR wrote it up.
A supercell thunderstorm producing severe weather moved southeast out of Dickey county North Dakota and brought damaging winds, large hail, along with a brief tornado to northern Brown county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 6:11 PM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 711 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 .UPDATE... WITH TSRAS IN EASTERN ND HEADING SOUTH THIS EVENING...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN NORTHEAST SD OVERNIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SMALL AREA OF PRECIP NOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...EVEN AS SOON AS 12 HOURS OUT. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MODELS AND USED SATELLITE INTERPRETATION IN CANADA TO TRY TO DETERMINE EXISTENCE/STRENGTH OF WAVES. ALSO TRIED TO RELY MOSTLY ON SURFACE OBS IN CANADA TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN WHERE WEAK LOWS/FRONTS WERE LOCATED. FOR TONIGHT...STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. NAM MUCH QUICKER THAN THE GFS AND RUC SOLUTION IS SIDING MORE WITH THE GFS RATHER THAN THE NAM. OTHER MODELS IN THE MIDDLE. SVR POTENTIAL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEFINITELY ENOUGH SHEAR AVAILABLE. INSTABILITY IS MODEST. SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER FOLLOWS BOUNDARY. NAM WOULD SUGGEST A SOLID CLOUD DECK AROUND 2000 FT BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IS COMPLETELY OPPOSITE AT 06Z TONIGHT...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER ASIDE FROM SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF KEEPING TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GFS TRYING TO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST IN SIMILAR FASHION TO TONIGHTS WAVE. NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS WITH OTHER MODELS...BUT SREF DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING...ALBEIT A SLIGHT CHANCE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH THE IDEA OF HOLDING BACK ON THE REAL HOT TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES ABOUND IN GUIDANCE VALUES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BETWEEN MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR MONDAY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG-PICTURE PATTERN TODAY. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SIT UNDER A RIDGE BETWEEN A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. ENERGY PROGGED TO RIDE AROUND AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT IDEA THAT SOME SORT OF WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. DECIDED TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS AS A RESULT. EXPECT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURE TO SHIFT AS PERIOD NEARS...BUT DEFINITELY WORTHY OF A MENTION AND A WATCHFUL EYE. A COLD FRONT IS STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK SO CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT OF DECREASING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND...APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL FLEX ITS MUSCLE AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER. && .AVIATION... VFR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MONDAY AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY 12Z MONDAY BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SOME TSRAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT VCTS AT ABR AND ATY MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WILL AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE A TSRA WILL OCCUR AT A STATION. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TT LONG TERM...ZELTWANGER AVIATION...MOHR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 505 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 SDZ003-009-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-161015- CORSON-WALWORTH-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND- JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO- 505 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 /405 AM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. MNZ039-046-SDZ004>008-010-011-018>023-161015- TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS- EDMUNDS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL- 505 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 55 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:16 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tornado touched down and blew over an unanchored and unoccupied trailer. There was also some minor tree damage.
One hundred mph winds blew an empty galvanized steel grain bin 100 yards downwind. A large machine shed was toppled over with debris thrown 200 yards downwind. There was also widespread tree damage with some farm implements tipped over and/or moved.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Dakota in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for South Dakota, 2007Warnings in South Dakota, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 52094, 52111, 52113, 52125, 52132.