Drought in South Dakota, February 1 to 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
817 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING OFF A BIT QUICKER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER JAMES VALLEY. MADE SOME UPDATES TO DROP
TEMPS...HOPEFULLY WEAK LL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ADVANCING DECK OF
CIRRUS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BOTTOM FROM FALLING OUT OF THE
MERCURY.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLY TYPE
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WHEN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH
BLOWING SNOW AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...FOLLOWED UP BY WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
PERSIST...AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE FAST DEPARTING THE CWFA.

FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS...FOR ITS CONSIDERABLY BETTER VERIFICATION
HISTORY SINCE LAST FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE NAM.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5 TO 10 MPH AND SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE CWFA ON THURSDAY. ALSO...TRIED TO TREND
DEW-POINTS UP SOME TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING LOW.
TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT IN A NORMAL DIURNAL TREND...ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAK WARMING MAY BE OCCURRING BY 12Z ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

WHEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...IT
WILL PUSH A NOTABLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA. NORTHWEST
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
COLD FROPA. AT THE SAME TIME...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE CWFA IN THE COLD AIR. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW ONE-HALF
MILE AT TIMES WHEN THE FALLING SNOW COMBINES WITH BLOWING SNOW. A
SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURRED THIS PAST MONDAY...AND THAT WX SITU WAS
HANDLED WELL BY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF
WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW/VISBY REDUCTIONS IN
THE SNOW SHOWERS. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE CAA CONTINUES TO FORCE THE MERCURY BELOW THE ZERO
LINE...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. A 1040+ SURFACE HIGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY...AND A LEE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE ROCKIES AND
SLOWLY BEGINS TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WAA FLOW TO SET BACK UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND BEGINNING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL FINALLY BE BACK ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY...AND MAY EVEN REACH
THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DARK HOURS WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
MID DAY...HOWEVER...SOME MVFR CIGS AND EVEN IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-012145-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
339 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007 /239 PM MST WED JAN 31 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO THE AREA.
RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. WHEN YOU
COMBINE THE STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...AND ANY FALLING SNOW IN
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD
FALL BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA. COMBINE
THE STRONG WIND AND ARCTIC AIR...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN