Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, January 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED FOR NEW TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5. THE
FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH EARLIER UPDATE HAVING
RAISED POP AND ADDED THUNDER. THIS OPPORTUNITY WILL BE TAKEN TO GO
ALL THE WAY EAST WITH THE CATEGORICAL POP...AND SOME SEVERE
WORDING WILL ALSO BE ADDED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR DEWPT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1010 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN SC THEN CUTTING
NORTH OF METRO CLT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL ACCOUNT
FOR A LIKELY POP ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ZONES AND APPROACHING PRE-
COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL ACCOUNT FOR CATEGORICAL POP OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO ADD A CHANCE OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY
IN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART BUT NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS WITH THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 18Z AT THE
LATEST.

THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NOW THAT OUR
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WE SHOULD NOT BREAK OUT
SO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...0-3KM WIND
SHEAR WILL PROBABLY BE GREATER THAN 40KT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF TORNADOES IN A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM. ALTHO THE LATEST TOR WATCH IS JUST TO THE S OF THE CWA...A
BRIEF TORNADO WILL NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND S OF I-85. THIS HAS
BEEN ADDRESSED IN A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH WILL BE UPDATED
MIDDAY IF NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 244 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER AND EAST COAST
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE...FORMERLY THE LOW...WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AS GULF INFLOW DECREASES. ALTHOUGH SOIL MOISTURE
AND RIVER LEVELS ARE ELEVATED FROM RECENT RAINS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FLOODING FROM BEING MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF WIND AT 850 MB WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS RATHER STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. USING A BLEND OF MODEL SURFACE WINDS KEEPS THE AREA OUT
OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR EXISTS...AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEVER WEATHER IS EAST OF THE AREA IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN WARM ADVECTION. BY
SATURDAY MORNING OUR AREA IS IN A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN.

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AS AN AMPLIFYING LONG
WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CONTINENT...TO EVENTUALLY TAKE UP
RESIDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS
LONGWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY . AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE WAVE SUPPORTS
RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY...AND THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. MODEL INSTABILITY AGAIN MAKES
ITS APPEARANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN AN ONGOING RAIN EVENT...THUNDER
WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL 850 MB WINDS
ARE RATHER STRONG AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT ARE PARALLEL TO AND JUST EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE
CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT THICKNESS LOWERS
FAST...SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON HOW
MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF COMPARE FAVORABLY AT 500 MB
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE SURFACE PATTERN OF THE GFS SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTION FORM HPC. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE
LOCAL MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER SKY COVER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING EAST COAST FRONT. A DRY RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT DUE THE EAST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
535 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FROM ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
838 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-051800-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-CABARRUS-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-ELBERT-
FRANKLIN-GASTON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-LAURENS-LINCOLN-
MECKLENBURG-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-RABUN-SPARTANBURG-
STEPHENS-UNION-YORK-
100 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND METRO
CHARLOTTE THIS MORNING...ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE OF GEORGIA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. BY NOON...THE LINE OF STORMS WILL APPROACH EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF TOCCOA...ANDERSON...LAURENS...AND ROCK HILL.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM ELBERTON TO ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO DOWN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.

STAY TUNED TO THE MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1147 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-062>065-068>072-082-
507>510-SCZ001>014-019-052200-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-CABARRUS-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-
EASTERN POLK-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GASTON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-HENDERSON-IREDELL-
LAURENS-LINCOLN-MACON-MECKLENBURG-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-RABUN-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION-YORK-
1147 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND INTO
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON GEORGIA...TO
GREENVILLE...AND MONROE NORTH CAROLINA. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM TOCCOA
TO ANDERSON...LAURENS...AND ROCK HILL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO DOWN BY THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.

STAY TUNED TO THE MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1234 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-
051900-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
RABUN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-STEPHENS-
1234 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
APPROACH NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE FAR WESTERN UPSTATE...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. THIS
INCLUDES LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ELBERTON...TO
TOCCOA...CLAYTON...AND FRANKLIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-011-019-
051900-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
RABUN-SOUTHERN JACKSON-STEPHENS-
1243 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
APPROACH NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE FAR WESTERN UPSTATE...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. THIS
INCLUDES LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ELBERTON...TO
TOCCOA...CLAYTON...AND FRANKLIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

SCZ002>007-010>012-019-052000-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER
PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
159 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...LAURENS...OCONEE...PICKENS AND SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EST...

AT 156 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE KEOWEE TO
CALHOUN FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ANDERSON BY 205 PM EST.
  PICKENS BY 210 PM EST.
  BELTON BY 215 PM EST.
  WILLIAMSTON BY 220 PM EST.
  POWDERSVILLE BY 225 PM EST.
  WARE SHOALS BY 230 PM EST.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

NED