A mid to upper level deformation zone across the local area, associated with an upper level low, led to diurnal convection across the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, which produced heavy rain over Juana Diaz.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A mid to upper level deformation zone across the local area, associated with an upper level low, led to diurnal convection across the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, which produced heavy rain over Juana Diaz.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 4:26 PM AST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 426 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2007 .SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL BE NOSED OUT OF THE WAY FROM THE EAST BY A HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THIS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY. AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN TWO STRONGER HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FORMING A RIDGE THAT HANGS SOUTH OVER PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE ROTATES OVER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS WEAKLY IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. OTHER TROUGHS ADVANCE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT ARE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER BEFORE THEY INFLUENCE PUERTO RICO OR THEY DO NOT DIRECTLY CROSS. && .DISCUSSION...BETTER HEATING AND NORTHEAST FLOW HAS BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE HAD AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES BY THE TIME THE AFTERNOON IS OVER. THE COMING TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BE NOTED BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BOTH MODELS...GFS AND NAM...NOTE A STRONG TURNING IN THE SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME FREQUENT SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO BECOMING NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT PASSES. SHOWERS WILL BE STRONG AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND DEPENDING ON JUST HOW NORTHERLY WINDS TURN... COULD AFFECT EVEN SOME OF THE NORMALLY DRIER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTH COMPONENT OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS ALSO KEEPING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES COOLER AND CHARLOTTE AMALIE AND FREDERIKSTED A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THIS WILL SWITCH ON MONDAY. THE GFS PAINTS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER O6Z MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO PASS AND ALTHOUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE IN MUCH DRIER AIR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO WILL STILL BE UNDER SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND SHOULD SEE CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEXT WAVE/TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE MODEL BEGINS SPINNING UP SEVERAL WAVES...ONE THAT JUST CAME OFF OF AFRICA AND ONE THAT IS YET TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THESE SPIN-UPS ARE NOT CERTAIN...BUT THE MODEL HAS THEM CROSSING 20 NORTH BEFORE 60 WEST AND BEFORE REACHING 45 WEST RESPECTIVELY. WILL WATCH THESE CLOSELY. THE FIRST ONE IS EXHIBITING SOME FAIRLY GOOD TURNING NEAR 8 NORTH 23 WEST. && .AVIATION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE HAD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE MOISTURE PASSES. CONVECTION ON THE ROUTE FROM SAN JUAN TO MIAMI SEEMS TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE ROUTE AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY GOOD FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH EXCEPTION PERHAPS OF SUNDAY. SHOWERS NEAR MIAMI INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE...WINDS REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION AND SEAS BELOW 6 FEET FOR NEXT 7 DAYS EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 89 79 90 / 60 60 40 40 STT 81 89 81 86 / 40 40 60 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. && 17/12/
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2007 PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-231000- 500 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-231000- 500 AM AST SAT SEP 22 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. .TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML
PRC043-075-113-133-222145-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 PM AST SAT SEP 22 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND SANTA ISABEL
AT 419 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
THESE AREAS AND MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL.
IF IN THE TRACK OF THESE STORMS...THE SAFEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
MOVE INDOORS NOW. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS
TREES. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.
RAMPRC043-075-113-133-222145-
COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
432 PM AST SABADO 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007
EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN HA EMITIDO UN
COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO HASTA LAS
545 PM AST PARA LAS PERSONAS EN LOS SIGUIENTES MUNICIPIOS EN PUERTO
RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE Y SANTA ISABEL
A LA 419 PM AST EL RADAR DOPPLER INDICABA AGUACEROS Y FURTES
TRONADAS DESARROLLANDOSE A TRAVES DE LOS SECTORES DEL INTERIOR DE
ESTOS MUNICIPIOS Y MOVIENDOSE AL SUROESTE HACIA LA COSTA.
ESTAS TRONADAS OCASIONARAN LLUVIA MUY FUERTE...FRECUENTES RELAMPAGOS
DE NUBE A TIERRA...VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS Y LA POSIBILIDAD DE GRANIZO
PEQUENO. SI SE ENCUENTRA EN EL PASO DE ESTAS TRONADAS...EL CURSO MAS
SEGURO DE ACCION ES ENTRAR A ALGUN SITIO SEGURO. FRECUENTES
RELAMPAGOS SON POSIBLES CON ESTAS TORMENTAS SI USTED SE ENCUENTRA AL
INTEMPERIE...MANTENGASE ALEJADO DE OBJETOS ALTOS SOLITARIOS TALES
COMO ARBOLES. SI SE ENCENTRA DENTRO DE UNA ESTRUCTURA SOLIDA
MANTENGASE ALEJADO DE VENTANAS Y PUERTAS Y EVITE ULTILIZAR TELEFONOS
AMENOS QUE SE UNA EMERGENCIA.
RAMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rains across Barrio Piedra Guza caused urban and street flooding in poorly drained areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 60858.