Drought in Pennsylvania, September 1 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND MERGE WITH AN OFFSHORE CIRCULATION.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DECREASING CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
NORTHWEST TRANSLATING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING TONIGHT.
MOS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OFFERINGS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE OVERALL, THE
GFS MOS WAS PREFERRED TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LEND CONFIDENCE TO THE MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF CLEAR OR FEW
CLOUDS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW SETS UP. OVERALL, WINDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH SOME DIURNAL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY A
BIT OF GUSTINESS SATURDAY IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONG HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERT RESIDUAL INFLUENCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME KIND OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND PERHAPS HANGING AROUND INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WAS
MENTIONED FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR NOW FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY 00Z, MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS HAD BUILT INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE UPPER DELMARVA, WITH SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS OVER NEW
JERSEY.  AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS COVERED MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.  THE CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING TO
THE SOUTH.

BASED ON EARLY EVENING TRENDS, WEVE SIMPLY CARRIED A CLEAR FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT FOR KRDG, KABE, KILG, KPHL AND KPNE, ALTHOUGH KPNE COULD
BE BRUSHED BY SOME STRATOCUMULUS BEFORE 02Z.  WEVE KEPT A BROKEN
CEILING AT KTTN UNTIL 02Z, THEN WE BROUGHT IN CLEAR CONDITIONS AS
THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.  FOR KACY AND KMIV,
WEVE MENTIONED SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS UNTIL 06Z TO ALLOW THE AREA
OF CLOUDS SOME TIME TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE REGION.

FROM 06Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR.  WITH DRY AIR BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH, THERE WILL BE NO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH.  IT
MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOME WIND MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT.  WERE FORECASTING
GUSTS UP TO 18 TO 20 KNOTS AT THAT TIME.

FOR THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MIST OR HAZE ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEW POINT
TEMPS RISE ON THE RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST.  A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER MUCH GRINDING AND GNASHING OF TEETH AND COORD WITH AKQ AND OKX
WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A (MODERATE CONFIDENCE) SCA FOR LATE TNGT AND
FIRST PART OF SAT FOR OUR OCEAN COASTAL WATERS. A COUPLE OF AREA OF
CONCERNS, THE FIRST BEING THE HYBRID SYS THAT IS ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF ACY. IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVG TO THE E NOW. THE GFS POSN
AT 18Z IS ABOUT 30 MI TOO FAR TO THE SE, WHL THE WRF-NMM POSN IS
WELL, NON-EXISTENT. (TU OKX) THE BUFKIT WIND FCSTS ARE STGR ON THE
GFS THAN THE WRF-NMM WHICH PART OF THE REASON MIGHT BE THE WRF-NMMS
LACK OF A DISCERNIBLE LOW. SO AT THE LEAST HYBRID LOW IS SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO THE CST. OBSERVED WAVES/SWELLS ARE ABT 1 FT HIER THAN
WAVEWATCH GUID WHICH WOULD BRING (ADJUSTED) 5 FOOT SEAS TO THE CSTL
AREAS LATER TNGT AND FRI. WE SUPPOSE WITH THAT HYBRID LOW STILL
HAVING A CLEAR LOOK AT THE NJ/DE CST, SOME OF THE SWELLS COULD MAKE
IT THIS FAR W. THE NEXT COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE FCSTD TIGHTER
GRADIENT TWD MRNG. THIS COINCIDES BETTER WITH COOLER AIR TEMPS OVER
THE WARMER AREA WATERS. THIS IN ITSELF COULD BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO
SCA AND ALSO GENERATE WIND WAVES/SWELLS CLOSE TO SCA CRIT. ONE BY
ITSELF WE WOULD HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE IT, BUT WITH TWO
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRIT TO BE MET, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA FOR LATE
TNGT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SAT. BY NOON SAT THE AIR TEMP/WATER
DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD BE GONE. ITS PSBL SCA CONDS FOR SEAS MIGHT
LINGER LONGER IN THE SRN PART OF THE AREA WATERS AND THIS WILL BE
REACCESSED AS ALL OF THIS WILL BY LATER SHIFTS.

BEYOND SAT, BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN BLO SCA CONDS
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WINDS
OR SEAS TO COME CLOSE TO SCA CONDS AGAIN TIL WED WHEN A SIM SCENARIO
LIKE SAT IS FCSTD BY THE LATEST GFS. SINCE THAT IS STILL 5 DAYS AWAY
AND MORE ROBUST THAN PREV MDL RUNS, WE KEPT WINDS/SEAS BLO SCA CRIT
FOR NOW.

&&

.TIDES/RIP CURRENTS...
WERE STILL HAVING SPRING TIDES AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONT TO
PRODUCE ABV NORMAL TIDES. THIS LATE EVE HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF
THE TWO FOR THE DAY, SO NO PBLMS THERE. THE CONCERN COMES WITH THE
SAT AROUND NOON HIGH TIDE AS ITS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALS. CUR TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE ABT A THIRD OF THE NGM ECS
GUID WHICH SHOULD STOP US JUST SHORT. EVEN UNDER A MORE PESSIM
SCENARIO, IT APPEARS MINOR WOULD ONLY BE MET AT THE USUAL SUSPECTS
(SANDY HOOK/CAPE MAY). FOR NOW SINCE ITS STILL ABT 24 HOURS AWAY,
WE/LL GIVE THE MID SHIFT THE OPPORTUNITY TO LOOK AT THE NEW GUID AND
SEE HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS RAMP UP TNGT. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS, BUT UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE
PSBLTY OF ISOLD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONT ON SAT WE SUSPECT THAT THE
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PBLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE/TIDES & RIP CURRENTS...TFG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-011915-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-011915-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN THE OCEAN SURF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE SATURDAY. ALSO, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN THE OCEAN SURF SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-011915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-011915-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.