Wildfire in California, September 1 to 2, 2007

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY INLAND TODAY WITH
MANY VALLEY AND LOWER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL HOT SPOT FOR THE DISTRICT TODAY WAS AT WOODLAND
HILLS WITH 109 DEGREES. ONE RECORD HIGH WAS TIED TODAY WHICH WAS AT
BOB HOPE AIRPORT IN BURBANK AT 106 DEGREES.

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN
GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
ALONG WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AND FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DISTRICT. LOW CLOUDS WERE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
COAST WITH LOCAL DENSE FOG AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

LARGE UPPER HI EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO SRN CA
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THRU LABOR DAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
EXCESSIVELY HOT SAT AND POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THRU LABOR DAY. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU SAT FOR THE VALLEYS
AND MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THIS WARNING MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX
FOR DETAILS ON THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. NEEDLESS TO SAT...THE
COOLEST PLACE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AT THE BEACHES...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S EXCEPT EVEN COOLER FOR THE BEACHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE E AND SE. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY...THOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT TO THE
VALLEYS AND COAST OF VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES BY MON. EVEN SO...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY THRU LABOR DAY.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH FRI. UPR LVL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD NORTH AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AND WITH THIS...A
TROF WILL DIG SOUTH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERAL OF THE HIGH FROM IDAHO
INTO NEVADA ON WED. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA...THICKNESS LVLS WILL LOWER AS WELL AS 950 MB TEMPS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BE NEAR
NORMAL BY FRI. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MILD OVERALL.
MODELS DO INDICATE THAT 700MB MID LVL MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE SO
EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF CU BUILDUPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT THE
LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0418Z...IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT KSMX AND KSBP
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE DISTRICT THRU SAT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KPMD AND KWJF SAT AFTERNOON.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT WITH A TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE NEAR 10 KT.

KBUR...VFR THRU SAT WITH A NORMAL AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/SIRARD
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-011300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
334 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY. MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 106 TO 112
DEGREES...WHILE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE READINGS BETWEEN
100 AND 106 DEGREES.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEACHES
TODAY AS AN INCREASING SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD MOVES INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS.

* EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.....SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
MOUNTAINS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY RISE AND RANGE FROM 106 TO 113
DEGREES...WHILE LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE READINGS BETWEEN
100 AND 107 DEGREES. OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEACHES
ON SATURDAY AS AN INCREASING SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD MOVES
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

* EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.....SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN