Lake-Effect Snow in Pennsylvania, December 5, 2007

Name: Lake-Effect Snow in Pennsylvania, December 5, 2007
Start: 2007-12-05T02:00
End: 2007-12-05T14:00
Location: Pennsylvania

December 5, 2007 · NWS CLE · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Northeast winds blowing down Lake Erie caused a reverse lake effect snow event along northern Erie County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $300,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.

Northeast winds blowing down Lake Erie caused a reverse lake effect snow event along northern Erie County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 4, 11:50 PM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 4, 11:50 PM EST, 2 hours 10 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1150 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WILL PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP ZONES A LITTLE. LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING IN
WESTERN ZONES NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACCUMS IN FORECAST LOOK OK.
TEMPS ALOFT FAIRLY COLD AND PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) FAIRLY LOW
SO IT SHOULD BE TOUGH TO GET MORE THAN 2 OR 3 INCHES SOUTH AND AN
INCH NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT SO WILL GO WITH STEADY WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLIPPER ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
CAT POPS ACROSS THE S AND SERN COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER 1
TO 2 INCHES THERE WEDNESDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. BEHIND
THE LOW WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COULD START TO SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SO WILL NEED TO KEEP POPS UP CENTRAL AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
THE WEST WILL BE ABLE TO DROP BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A SURFACE HIGH DROPS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD END UP SEEING SOME
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE OR AT LEAST MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL WI WHILE THE GFS HAS AN OPEN SURFACE WAVE. THE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SO BEST POPS WILL BE NORTH. WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS INTO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CHC ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SHARE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE. TEMPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM BY
AFTERNOON THAT ANY MORNING SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND TURN TO RAIN
SHORTLY AFTER NOON. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT A WAVE WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MIXED PRECIP (ICE)
POTENTIAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR SURGES OVER STABLE COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE BUT AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
ANY ICE/SNOW WOULD QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
BL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
TURN BACK TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS TEMPS
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS STILL GOING ON EAST OF CLE. THE
CLIPPER IS RAPIDLY SPREADING SNOW INTO WESTERN OHIO AND IT SHOULD BE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 10Z. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH KY AND THAT
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET SOME IFR WEATHER
IN SNOW. OVER WISCONSIN WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL COME FROM THE VISIBILITIES WERE BELOW 2SM BUT THE
RADAR REFLECTIVIES WERE LESS THAN 20 DBZ OVER A LARGE AREA. IN THE
CLE AND CAK AREA IT WILL TRANSITION FROM CLIPPER TO LAKE EFFECT
AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR AS PLENTY OF RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLIPPERS ARE FAST MOVING AND IT WILL DRY
OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID MORNING ON. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AND ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
NON VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY WITH VFR AND THEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NON VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  SCA CRITERIA WILL END
OVER THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE BY MORNING.  ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY.  WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NW-N FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KNOTS.

WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF AROUND 20
KNOTS....WITH THE WINDS TURNING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT
CHOPPY CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LEINS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 4, 2:03 PM EST, 11 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
203 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2007

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-051915-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
203 PM EST TUE DEC 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Lake-Effect Snow, Northern Erie

When: December 5, 2:00 AM EST to 2:00 PM EST
Where: Northern Erie forecast zone
Property damage: $250,000
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.118, -80.098 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold northeast winds blowing down Lake Erie caused reverse lake effect snow bands to develop and move across northern Erie County. This activity began during the early morning hours of the 5th and intensified after daybreak. Visibilities during the mid morning hours were near zero with snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour reported. The snow bands shifted west out of the area during the afternoon. Snowfall totals across northern Erie County ranged from 6 to 10 inches most areas with a maximum of 12.0 inches measured near Erie International Airport. Dozens of accidents and significant travel delays were reported.

Lake-Effect Snow, Southern Erie

When: December 5, 2:00 AM EST to 2:00 PM EST
Where: Southern Erie forecast zone
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.118, -80.098 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cold northeast winds blowing down Lake Erie caused reverse lake effect snow bands to develop and move across northern Erie County. This activity began during the early morning hours of the 5th and intensified after daybreak. Visibilities during the mid morning hours were near zero with snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour reported. The snow bands shifted west out of the area during the afternoon. Snowfall totals across northern Erie County ranged from 6 to 10 inches north of Interstate 90 to around 6 inches to the south of the interstate. Dozens of accidents and significant travel delays were reported.

What these are

Lake-Effect Snow: Heavy snow in bands downwind of a large lake as cold air crosses warmer water.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Pennsylvania, December 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 68763, 68764.