Hail and Damaging Winds in Pennsylvania, August 17, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM CANADA WILL BRING A
NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A POTENT DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE RACES FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RETREATING
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND PARTS
OF NYS SOUTHERN TIER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE IN CENTRAL PA. ALTHOUGH DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR IS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THERE FOR A
SHOWERS/STORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS A RESULT...WEVE ADDED
MENTION OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR NORTHEAST PA...THE
CATSKILLS...AND PARTS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION.

WE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...BASED MAINLY ON MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST. UL WAVE PASSES TO OUR
EAST LATE THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUED DRY AND COOL ADVECTION
WITH SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS
IN. STILL SOME CU/SC EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY...ESPLY DOWN
WIND ZONES FROM LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN WITH MORE SUN THAN TODAY...THE
COOLEST PART OF THE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND TEMPS
ARE LOOKING HARD PRESSED TO BREAK 70 IN CNY...WITH ONLY ABOUT
70-75 IN NEPA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WAKING UP SUNDAY MORNING WILL FELL LIKE FALL...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE RURAL VALLEYS WHERE READINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE WELL DOWN
INTO THE 40S.

THEN...SUNDAY BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO RETREAT...AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP JUST TO OUR
WEST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIGHTING UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT
THE GTLKS REGION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. GFS/NAM AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER
BY SHUNTING ANY PRECIP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. SREF MEMBERS HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF...SO HAVE CHANGED SUNDAY TO A DRY DAY...BUT MCS TRACKS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY BE A COUNTY OR TWO AWAY
FROM THE TWIN TIERS AND WYOMING VALLEY REGIONS. WE WILL START TO
SEE A WARMING TREND AGAIN AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK TOWARD
10C...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. FASTER PATTERN AS FLOW GOES CLOSER TO ZONAL
FROM THE PLAINS RIDGE OF THE PAST WEEK. HPC AND MODELS NOW WETTER
THAN YESTERDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
INTO THURSDAY. EACH DAY A LITTLE WARMER WITH MORE MOISTURE. A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PA TO THE COAST TUESDAY.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE IN PA WITH LEAST IN
ONEIDA COUNTY. LATE IN THE WEEK WE MIGHT BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT IN SE CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TERMINALS ATTM AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. A SCT CU DECK NEAR 5KFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...SOME
SHRA ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR SHRA /MAINLY DUE TO VSBYS/ AT
ITH/SYR/RME AS IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SITES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SOME SHRA ACTIVITY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 7Z. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHRA MAY PERSIST AFTER 7Z...BUT FEEL
THE 2-7Z WINDOW CAPTURES THE HIGHEST LIKLIEHOOD FOR RESTRICITONS.
EXPECT OTHER SITES TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...REACHING
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
DIMINISH TO NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MVFR OR IFR VALLEY FOG AT ELM POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT AVP AND MAYBE BGM...ITH...AND ELM IN
-SHRA AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WSR-88D OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. PART SHOULD ARRIVE
THIS MORNING...AND RADAR SHOULD BE BACK IN OPERATION SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JMA
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-048-
072-181745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ043-044-047-181745-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 612 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.