Heavy rainfall, associated with a very intense late season coastal storm, produced flooding of small streams and urban areas across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall, associated with a very intense late season coastal storm, produced flooding of small streams and urban areas across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 9:39 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1039 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC ANALYSIS PLACES AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN PA THIS AM. COOLER AIR EXISTS WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP OVER PA IS RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH LATE AFTN. IT WILL TAKE THE DEVELOPING SFC LO OVR CAROLINAS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE COAST AND STARTING TO WIND UP BEFORE COLDER AIR STARTS TO GET INCORPORATED AND SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER CAN OCCUR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING HEAVIEST RAIN HAS TEMPORARILY PUSHED EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY...AS LL JET AXIS SHIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL SPAWN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SFC LOW ON THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TDY...KEEPING A STEADY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA. OVER WESTERN PA...CHANGEOVER LINE WILL TRY TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTN...BATTLING THE DIURNAL RISE IN TEMPERATURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO EVEN WHERE IT MANAGES TO SNOW...GROUND/AIR TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY WARM OVER MOST AREAS...PRECLUDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NW MTNS APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD RECEIVE A LIGHT SNOW ACCUM THRU 6 PM THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... PLENTY OF AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW REACHING THE NJ COAST NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY 00Z WHILE BEING WELL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING AN IMPRESSIVE GALE. PRESSURES ARE PROGGED TO BE SUB 990MB BY THEN WITH THE COLDER AIR FINALLY MAKING THE PLUNGE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THAT MOST STORMS THAT REACH THAT LOCATION OFTEN HAVE THEIR WESTERNMOST PRECIP SHIELD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OR BECOME SHOWERY. SO WHILE THE COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN...THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN OR OVER. THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NY. AS THE LOW STARTS TO STACK UP WITH ITS UPPER AIR COUNTERPART...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIG DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. GFS/NAM/WRF ALL DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH WRAPS BACK IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS THE LONE RANGER HOWEVER IN HAVING A QPF THAT SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS. THIS SORT OF MESO SCALE FEATURE WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE SHORT TERM TURNS INTO THE NEAR TERM. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE STORM ONLY BEGRUDGINGLY MOVES AWAY AND RELEASES ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY WEEKS END. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FSCT TIMIMG AND TYPE OF PCPN WENT AS EXPECTED ON SAT. FOR TODAY...HIGH DEWPOINTS FEEDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD WELL INLAND...ONE COULD GET TASTE OF THIS BY NOTING HIGHS OVER GA ON SAT...LOWER 90S. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 70S WHEN I CAME IN JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. VERY COLD CLD TOPS NOW...FROM NEAR HAR...SOUTHWARD TO JUST NE OF CHS. USUALLY WHEN ONE HAS AN AIRMASS LIKE THIS SO FAR INLAND...AND A STRONG JET...LOW WILL BOMB OUT ONCE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. LOW EARLIER WAS OVER GA. FOR C PA...HEAVY RAIN AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SPOTTY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. WAS SOME SNOW EARLIER ALONG NY BORDER. ANYWAY...FOR THE MOST PART...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO TUE. EXPECT RAIN TO GO OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT...AS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO SE PA. STILL SOME CHC TO HAVE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW...GIVEN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM... BUT HEAVY SNOW LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER ON WED INTO THU...AS C PA WILL BE ON A EAST SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH. IT MAY BE WED BEFORE AREAS N AND W OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. && .HYDROLOGY... UP 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVR LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF 12Z. FLOOD WATCH COVERS THESE ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 ON AVERAGE...MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS. IF WIDESPREAD HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED...SOME OF THE FLASHIER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA RIVER AND TRIBUTARY POINTS COULD ALSO APPROACH FLOOD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ004>006- 010-011-037-042. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ057>059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...LACORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LACORTE LONG TERM...LACORTE AVIATION...MARTIN HYDROLOGY...FITZGERALD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 451 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 PAZ004>006-010-011-037-042-160900- WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-TIOGA-SULLIVAN- 451 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-056-160900- NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA- BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER- MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY- 451 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA. FALLING TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO MAKE ROADWAYS SLIPPERY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE DEPARTING STORM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. PAZ057>059-063>066-160900- DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 451 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE DEPARTING STORM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall of around 2 inches produced flooding of small streams and creeks in York County. In Dover and East Manchester Townships, roads were closed due to flooding of the Little Conewago Creek. In Warrington Township, a road was closed due to flooding of Conewago Creek.
Heavy rainfall of around 2 inches produced flooding of small streams and creeks in northwest Adams County, mainly in Oxford Township. A total of 9 roads were closed, primarily due to flooding along New Conewago Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, April 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 15745, 15743.