Damaging Winds in Ohio, September 25, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN
TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW CONTINUED
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT AND THEN STALL. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
VERY WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS
DIURNAL WITH A MORE STABLE CLOUD SHIELD TO OUR WEST. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON RADAR MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND SHWRS DISIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. HOWEVER LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MODELS BRING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR WEST
INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST AND
MID/HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WAFFLE ABOUT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSUER RIDE NE ALONG
THE BOUNDRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LKLY POPS MOST AREAS..ALTHOUGH
NWRN OHIO NOT AS FAVORED GIVEN LARGE SCALE FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. WILL HANG ON TO LKLY POPS EAST IN
THE MORNING BUT WL BACK OFF TO CHC IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE MOVES EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HANG ONTO A SMALL CHANCE
FAR NE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING ACROSS THE
LAKE POSSIBLY ALLOWING A COUPLE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
TEMPS WILL BACK DOWN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A LAKE EFFECT SHOWER
FAR NORTHEAST BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAPID CLEARING TOOK PLACE THIS MORNING HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
BECOME SUPPRESSED. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AREAS AND JUST MENTION
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 14Z TOMORROW AT
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. HOLDING
OFF THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING.

WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT A
WEAK WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY WIN OUT BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL THEN...SW TO S FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AS FRONT APPROACHES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SHOWERS ON WED AND WED EVE.  FLOW
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME N TO NW BEHIND FRONT BUT AT THE SAME TIME
SHOULD DIMINISH.  BY WED EVE...FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED.
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THU.  AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN WITH LIGHT FLOW THEN EXPECTED INTO SUN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
544 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-260945-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
544 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ISSUED.