Damaging Winds in Indiana, September 25, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THU.

AT 18Z COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WI INTO MO. TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM LA NORTHWARD INTO IL AND IN. ON WV SATELLITE
AN UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED IN THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS AR. SCT SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA WERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /FA/.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL
WAVE ON WED. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A WAVE IN SOME FASHION
WHILE NAM CONTINUES NOT TO. HOWEVER SREFS ALSO SHOW A WAVE. THUS
FEEL THAT A WAVE WILL FORM...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY AS STRONG AS GFS
INDICATES DUE TO POSSIBLE MINOR FEEDBACK ISSUES. OTHERWISE WENT WITH
A BLEND.

CURRENT WAVE ACROSS AR THAT WAS HELPING PRODUCE TSRA CURRENTLY
ACROSS AR/MO/KY SHOULD BRING THE TSRA N INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE REACHING THE FA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GIVEN ALL OF THIS LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ACROSS NWRN HALF
OF FA. ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WILL GO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH
SCATTERED WORDING DUE TO LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN.

ON WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FA AS WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF FA GIVEN THIS. WILL
DECREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTN AS FRONT
SINKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. MET/MAV GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK
OK AGAIN.

WAVE WILL EXIT THE FA DURING WED NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS.
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE JUST FAR ENOUGH E ON THU TO REMOVE THE LINGERING
POPS ACROSS SRN FA. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES
THU AFTN BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY PRECIP ACROSS FA DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK IN FOR FRI/SAT PROVIDING NICE WEATHER.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN SO WILL JUST KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
WK VORT CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS INDIANA CURRENTLY PRODUCING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS VORT CENTER CONTINUES EAST.
THEN NEXT ROUND OF MORE NUMEROUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KLAF AREA TOWARDS 09Z AND TO KIND AND
KLAF AREA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR
UNTIL COLD FRONT AND DROPPING INTO LOWER MVFR CATEGORY OR POSSIBLY
IFR CATEGORY WITH FRONT.  MODELS ESPECIALLY GFS INDICATE FRONT MAY
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA PROBABLY NEAR KHUF AND KIND AREA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO LOWER CEILINGS NOT AS CERTAIN THERE.  ALSO
VSBYS SHOULD DROP INTO ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

INZ021-028>031-038-261430-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS THEY OBSERVE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ035>037-039>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-261430-
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-
OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-
BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007 /917 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS THEY OBSERVE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)