A surface low pressure system along with a strong upper level disturbance brought continuous showers and thunderstorms over portions of central North Dakota Saturday May 5th. The heaviest rainfall amounts (3 to 5 inches) occurred across eastern LaMoure and Dickey counties, along with numerous flash flood reports.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A surface low pressure system along with a strong upper level disturbance brought continuous showers and thunderstorms over portions of central North Dakota Saturday May 5th. The heaviest rainfall amounts (3 to 5 inches) occurred across eastern LaMoure and Dickey counties, along with numerous flash flood reports.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 5, 2:00 PM CST, 7 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 300 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE REMAINS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT... WITH THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA STORMS MOVING PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT NORTH...AND THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA STORMS STEERING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. AIRMASS IS VERY SATURATED...SO SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOWEST...AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SO...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE 4 SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY...SO WILL RAISE POPS SOME AREAS FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. ALSO WILL EXPAND THE THUNDERSTORM AREA. GFS FORECASTS MORE OF A DRY SLOT TO PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING. KEPT THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES FOR WED THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FURTHER SOUTH PER GFS. GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. ON THE SURFACE ECMWF MORE DEFINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH THAN GFS. PRECIP IN LONG TERM FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND STATEWIDE FRIDAY. WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLING INTO THE 60S AFTER THAT. && .AVIATION... INVERTED TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING SKIES IFR-MVRF EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE IT HAS BEEN MAINLY VFR. WAVES OF RAIN PUSHING UP FROM THE SOUTH BEING STEERED BY THE 500MB FLOW. KEPT CHC TS IN FOR BIS AND JMS AS RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING OUR WAY. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WHOLE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ047-048-050- 051. && JF/CP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>046-061100- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER- STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS- 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 /244 PM MDT SAT MAY 5 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. NDZ047-048-050-051-061100- LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 344 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM CDT ON SUNDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. JF
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:30 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Reported rainfall ammounts up to 5 inches caused street flooding, basement flooding, and water standing in fields.
Reported rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches caused street flooding, basement flooding, water to be standing in fields, and gravel roads being washed out. Flash flooding was reported from Adrian to Dickey and Grand Rapids, to Marion.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 22984, 22986.