Drought in North Dakota, March 1 to 6, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH
ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. IN ADVANCE
OF TROUGH STRONG SURFACE/850MB WARM ADVECTION WAS EVIDENT OVER CWFA.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB TROUGH OVER
NE MT/NW ND BORDER. STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WAS NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN STREAM FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS/RUC ANALYSIS EXPECT WARM ADVECTION AIDED
SNOWS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEST.
LATEST SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED HEAVIEST SNOWS SO FAR TODAY HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS SARGENT...BARNES AND RANSOM COUNTIES WHERE AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8
INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF FORT RANSOM. CURRENT INHERITED
ZONES PRETTY MUCH BACK UP HEADLINES WELL THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM
EARLIER THINKING. WILL SEND OUT UPDATED WSW TO PROJECT WHERE HEAVIEST
SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND A PNS FOR LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL LOWER INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE LATER
THIS EVENING. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-029-
     030-040.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR MNZ005-006-009.

&&

BERG/DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011230-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
630 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6 PM
FRIDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE. THE CAUSE OF THIS SNOW IS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN
COUNTRY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN KANSAS AND MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. SNOW AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

SNOW WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE CALL IN REPORTS OF SNOWFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GRAND FORKS.

RIDDLE