Hail in North Dakota, June 22, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
800 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.UPDATE...
STORMS THAT FORMED IN THE BOTTINEAU AREA OF ND GENERALLY WEAKENING
WITH THE LONGEST LIVED SUPERCELL DROPPINGS MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND VERY SLOWLY IN SPEED THRU MCHENRY COUNTY. OF MORE CONCERN IS
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. STORMS
NORTH OF THE BORDER HAVE INTENSIFIED IN PAST HOUR WITH SOME
OUTFLOW SOUTHEASTWARD HELPING TO FORM NEW STORMS CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGHEST CAPES AND INSTABILITIES REMAIN IN
MANITOBA WITH TIGHT GRADIENT TO MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AS YOU
GET TO GFK-TVF. BECAUSE OF PSBL SVR CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER
DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS DID COORD WITH SPC AND
ADDED A FEW COUNTIES TO SVR TSTM WATCH 445 VALID UNTIL 11 PM
INCLUDING RAMSEY...CAVALIER...PEMBINA...WALSH IN ND AND KITTSON
AND ROSEAU IN ND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007/

SHORT TERM...CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE N FA
THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES...AND THUNDER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. 12Z MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...NAM BECOMES
SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 500MB PATTERN BY MON...THUS WILL
UTILIZE GFS FOR DETAILS.

TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
S CANADA LOCATED JUST N OF THE FA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SFC LOW
ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG TO CONTINUE EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE 65F-70F WITH MLCAPES 2000-3500 J/KG. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS S CANADA AND MOVE INTO THE N FA THIS
EVENING. SPC DOES SHOW A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30KTS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. WOULD IMAGINE A FEW SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY THIS
EVENING...BUT A WEAKENING TREND WITH LOSS OF SOLAR SINCE LOW LEVEL
JET IS NIL. THUNDER CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO NW MN PAST MIDNIGHT
BUT END BY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS ON SATURDAY AS DEEP TROUGH CRASHES PAC NW.
THIS BUILDS WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS WITH ATMOSPHERE BECOMING CAPPED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR 90F. WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SFC TEMPS SIMILAR. ALL PRECIP
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM MEAN TROUGH TO
AFFECT NW/N FA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST. SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS W FA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (TUE THROUGH FRI)...LONG RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
A 500MB LOW MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUE...UNTIL 500MB RIDGE REBUILDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPS...SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION...VFR SKY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-231200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. ISOLATED REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

RIVERINE FLOODING IS EITHER FORECAST OR WILL CONTINUE IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AT PEMBINA AND POINTS SOUTH...AND ON TRIBUTARIES
OF THE RED RIVER IN MINNESOTA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEMIDJI
MINNESOTA TO COOPERSTOWN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOIST UNSTABLE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG/HOPPES