Flash Flood in North Dakota, April 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2007

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE FOR TODAY TO POP/WX TRENDS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. SYSTEM NOW LOCATED JUST SE OF THE REGION AND BECOMING
STACKED. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY.
DEFORMATION PRECIP HAS SET UP ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE COLUMN HAS
COOLED TO BELOW FREEZING AND THE PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEY. SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED FROM LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY WHERE THE
DEFORMATION ZONE HAD BEEN. EXPECT THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST TODAY...AND 12Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE VALLEY TO BE STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL TODAY AS PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
VALLEY WILL REMAIN STEADY WHILE IT SNOWS...MAYBE RISE A FEW
DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN IT STOPS SNOWING. AREAS WEST OF THE
VALLEY SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY TO NEAR 40F.

DID CHANGE WX TO ALL SNOW ALONG THE VALLEY AND GRADUALLY CHANGED
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON E OF THE VALLEY WITH THE 12Z NAM NOW
INDICATING COLUMN BELOW FREEZING. WILL ALSO MENTION 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PAST REPORTS. DO NOT
EXPECT MORE GIVEN WARM GROUND. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MOST CHANGES ARE MINOR IN NATURE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
643 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2007

...WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY...

...MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC FLOOD WARNING
AND WATCH INFORMATION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY AREAS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH
MAINLY ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING ENDING ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND BRING THE THREAT OF SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO CALL INTO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH
RAINFALL REPORTS AS ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING FUTURE RIVER LEVELS.

VOELKER