Hail and Lightning Strike in North Carolina, March 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT: MSAS ANALYSIS HAS MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IN VICINITY OF THE VA BORDER SINCE EARLY MORNING. AIRMASS
HAS DESTABILIZED WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 TO -3
CELSIUS. THIS REGION ALSO IN ZONE OF SURFACE THETA-E ADVECTION.
HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AS LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CU HAS
DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA. HAVE NOTICED A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING
ALONG BLUE RIDGE SINCE 1730Z. DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF SIGNALS
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, PLAN TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA THROUGH 02Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE BOUNDARY
GRADUALLY DRIFTS SWD THEN STALLS OVER REGION. THIS FRONT MAY POOL
MOISTURE ALONG IT, RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG BY EARLY WED MORNING.
WENT WITH MIN TEMPS COMPARABLE TO MINS RECORDED THIS MORNING WHICH
ARE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. -WSS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL ON TRACK TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT RIDES
NORTHEAST ATOP THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH A
WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY DOES DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. WITH
INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES... COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND RISING INSTABILITY ASSISTED BY DAYTIME INSOLATION... EXPECT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. THE EXISTING FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND WELL AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE... AND HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60... CAPES CLIMB TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG WITH TOTAL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 50 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS... SO A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT
A BIT WARMER... 81-85. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
PLOWING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACTING ON COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND POOLING OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT POPS TO TAPER OFF
THURSDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE
NAM SHOWING MUCH MORE RAPID DRYING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A SLOWER DRYING... A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS... UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CHARACTER OF THE INCOMING AIR MASS CAN BE ACHIEVED. HAVE GONE WITH
ATYPICAL HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY... AS READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH
PLENTY OF SUN FRIDAY UNDER THE NOSE OF STABLE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... IN THE MID 60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

EARLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE THE SOUTHEAST STATES ARE INSULATED BY
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE
COAST... AND THUS EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WELL INTO
SATURDAY. OP GFS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECASTS HAVE HELD QUITE
STEADY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS... VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES
SATURDAY. YESTERDAYS GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES & SEAWAY REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY... BUT SINCE ITS 26/18Z RUN IS NOW A BIT FASTER. IN CONTRAST
THE 27/00Z ECMWF IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP THROUGH
NC... QUITE A CHANGE CONSIDERING IT HAD BEEN FAIRLY STABLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH BASED
ON THE RAPIDLY WANING FORCING & HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TROUGH AMPLITUDE
DAMPENS AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN... WILL KEEP
POPS AS LOW CHANCES. THE MID LEVELS REALLY DONT COOL MUCH WITH THIS
SYSTEM... SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ALTHOUGH STILL SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THICKNESSES DROP TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY THEN JUMP BACK WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WARM
TEXAS-SOURCE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS... WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
MONDAY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TUESDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED EXPECT FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION (FOG) EARLY WED
MORNING.

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN MAY TRIGGER/SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN
21Z-02Z. CHANCE APPEARS TOO REMOTE TO MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NORTH WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. THIS FEATURE MAY
CAUSE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WED AFTERNOON INTO WED
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FAR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS...EXPECT WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SWITCH TO A LIGHT NLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTH TONIGHT/EARLY WED. -WSS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
524 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-280930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
524 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
542 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

NCZ026-027-272245-
FRANKLIN-NASH-
542 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FRANKLIN AND NASH COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTERVILLE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF LOUISBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...RED OAK...
DORTCHES...BATTLEBORO.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES.

VINCENT