Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 8, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...AND WASH OUT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH...THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH...SO THERE IS A
DEFINITE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. AS FAR AS THE FATE OF
THE MCS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY...IT WILL BE A RACE TO SEE WHETHER
THE MCS WILL MAKE IT TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE THE ATM BEGINS TO
STABILIZE. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO A REGION WITH QUITE WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOSE SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION AS IT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE. WE ALSO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY TO
LINGER TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET...SO SOLID CHANCE POPS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUFFICE.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK WIND SHEAR
AND AN ABSENCE OF FORCING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...OR MAYBE EVEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT WOULDN/T
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS IT/S BEEN SO FAR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY FCST WITH A
STRONG CAP/SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW. MODEL LOW LVL
THICKNESSES WILL BE DOWN A BIT...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS AT OR A A
COUPLE DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. BASICALLY...MOST MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
A BIT TOO HIGH...SO WENT A COUPLE DEG BELOW MOS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO
BE IN THE M/U80S (70S TO LWR 80S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS). MIN TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S (50S IN THE MTNS) SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 3-5
DEG F COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OMEGA BLOCK IS FCST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE STALLED OUT OLD FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LINGER NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE LOW LVL ELY FLOW AND A LARGE SFC HIGH
THAT WILL ORIGINATE FROM CANADA PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
APPARENTLY LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEG F
ABOVE AVG.

THE BNDRY BEGINS TO ADVANCE N TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
CWFA WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE LATEST MEXMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE BNDRY STALLS OUT
OVER THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED THE POP GRIDS UP TOWARD THESE
VALUES...BUT STILL 20-30 PCT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN NEAR TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IS
ALREADY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS AND IN THE LEE
TROUGH...AS ATM HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WE HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE KAVL AND KHKY TAFS...AND WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
ADDING A TEMPO TO KAVL IN SHORT ORDER. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE LIMITED
THE CONVECTIVE MENTION TO A CB CLOUD GROUP AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE...
THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG TOMORROW
MORNING...ESP AT KAVL.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO SIG AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PIEDMONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED...BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCZ053-081900-
BUNCOMBE-
201 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEAVERVILLE TO 5
MILES NORTH OF CANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEAVERVILLE BY 215 PM EDT.
  WOODFIN BY 230 PM EDT.
  UNC ASHEVILLE BY 245 PM EDT.
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE BY 250 PM EDT.
  ASHEVILLE MALL BY 255 PM EDT.
  BILTMORE FOREST BY 300 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

GAZ017-082000-
HABERSHAM-
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BATESVILLE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLARKESVILLE BY 320 PM EDT.
  TURNERVILLE BY 335 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.