Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE OVER TX WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO
NC SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.70 INCHES AND MODIFIED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000
J/KG BASED ON THE HIGHER NAM DEWPOINTS WHICH APPEAR TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND WRF INDICATE QPF
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND
PROPAGATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TO THE NRN OUTER BANKS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE WRF INDICATES STG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SHORTWAVE APPEARS ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER NRN ALABAMA. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS TO THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MID LVL ENERGY FRM SRN STREAM SYS WL STRETCH OVR SRN PART OF CWA
TNGT...WHICH CUD KP TSTM ACTVTY GOING WELL INTO THE NGTTM HRS. SRN
STREAM SYS WL APPCH NC ON SUN. NAM NOT GETTING TOO XCITD ABT PCPN
POTENTIAL ON SUN. HWVR AS SFC LO APPCHS ON MON...XPCTG RAIN OVR
MJRTY OF AREA MON AND MON NGT. NAM SHOWG WRM FRNT TYPE BNDRY OVR CWA
MON AFTN WHICH WL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WL HV HIEST POPS MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PIEDMONT THERMAL TROF/BERMUDA HIGH WILL PRODUCE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TUE-THU WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS. HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 ARE LIKELY INLAND FROM COAST. COLD FRONT WILL BRING
BETTER CHC OF STORMS LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING WITH VFR ANTICIPATED THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 16Z.

SYS MVG ALNG GULF COAST STATES WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER
EASTERN NC SUN NGT AND MON. EXPECTING MVFR RAIN MON. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LATE NIGHT FOG AND WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT S-SWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. MODELS INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 10-15 KT ACROSS MOST WATERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND SEABREEZE
FRONT. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AND GRIDS THIS
MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KT FROM THE SW AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRES APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW.

THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE PATTERN WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE PREVAILING SW FLOW TO BE ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS THE DEVELOP TO NORTH OR WEST BUT CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL KEEP THE
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CGG/CTC
MARINE...SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
323 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-080730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
323 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.