Lightning Strike in North Carolina, July 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY US OUT AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
CLOSE TO THE COAST. A WEAKER SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON SATURDAY...AFTER
WHICH THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTIVE CHANGES QUICKLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR AND LOW
LEVEL CAA COMMENCES. HAVE CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TAPERING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWFA. SKIES CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MID 60S.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONT STALLS OUT
OVER NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES STILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE DRY LOOKS TO KEEP THE AFTN STABLE.
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT SLIGHT CHC POP IN FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH THE TROF JUST TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GFS IS MOSTLY DRY WITH NO INSTABILITY
XCPT FOR THE MTNS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE. THE NAM HAS SOME
INSTABILITY WITH LIKELY POP MTNS AND HIGH CHC SOUTH. THE SREF SHOWS
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND GOOD CHC POP MTNS WITH LOW CHC ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE DECENT CHANCE OF SOME INSTABILITY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL TREND WITH THE SREF POP. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE DESPITE WHAT THE GFS SHOWS FRI NITE. IT
SHEARS OUT A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SREF AND THE NAM KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE MINIMAL POP
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT BELOW NORMAL NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH.

FOR SATURDAY...THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG BUT SHEARED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA WHILE THE NAM HAS A MUCH WEAKER WAVE. THE NAM STAYS MOSTLY
DRY WITH CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THE GFS BRINGS CONVECTION AND LIKELY POP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWFA. ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWING THE SREF GIVEN THE WIDE DIVERGENCE IN
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. IT HAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE CWFA WITH A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT. THE POP FOLLOWS
THIS GRADIENT SO HAVE A DIURNAL 40 POP SOUTH AND 30 POP NORTHEAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER THICKNESSES AND MORE CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL RUNS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. EAST COAST TROF RETREATS NORTHWARD AS THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SERIES OF FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS DECENT CHC OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THEN A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LOW CHC AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WAS SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES. MAINLY A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS (GUSTS
HAVE BEEN 25-30 KTS). WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.
WITH ALL THE TOWERING CU AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TS
AROUND...HAVE CB MENTION THROUGH 00Z AT ALL SITES WITH CIGS AROUND
4KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND DRY AIR QUICKLY WORKS ITS WAY IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG
LOOKS TO BE AT KAVL/KAND/KHKY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY WILL BE VFR. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
REINTRODUCE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG ARE FAVORED IN RAIN SOAKED AREAS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY PREVENTING RESTRICTIONS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-122000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
350 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...ONLY ONE OR TWO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE FROM GREENWOOD TO CHESTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

SCZ003-006-007-111700-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

AT 1200 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARIETTA...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...LAKE ROBINSON...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...LAKE BOWEN...NORTH
  SALUDA RESERVOIR...WELLFORD...TRAVELERS REST...TIGERVILLE...PARIS
  MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...MAYO...MARIETTA...LYMAN...LANDRUM...INMAN...
  GREER...GOWENSVILLE...FINGERVILLE...COWPENS...CLEVELAND...
  CHESNEE...CAMPOBELLO AND BOILING SPRINGS SC.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1231 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

GAZ028-SCZ010-111715-
ANDERSON-HART-
1231 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HART AND SOUTHERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BROADWAY
  LAKE...NUBERG...HARTWELL...STARR...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...HONEA
  PATH...BELTON AND ANDERSON.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

SCZ010-011-111815-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-
124 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IVA...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SECESSION
  LAKE...STARR...LOWNDESVILLE...IVA...HONEA PATH...DUE WEST...DONALDS
  AND ANTREVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ036-056-111830-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-
152 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL IREDELL AND EASTERN
CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TROUTMAN...
  STATESVILLE...NEWTON...CONOVER...CLAREMONT AND CATAWBA.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ035-502-111845-
ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-
159 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF HUDSON...OR 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LENOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KINGS
  CREEK...TAYLORSVILLE...SAWMILLS...MILLERSVILLE...LENOIR...HUDSON...
  HIDDENITE...ELLENDALE AND CAJAHS MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
449 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

NCZ082-112145-
UNION-
449 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 444 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF UNIONVILLE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB