Damaging Winds in North Carolina, January 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W MTNS ATTM. VAD WINDS SHOWED 50 KTS AT 5K
FEET OVER GSP AND THEY ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF SO STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS MTNS NOW. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNING/ADVISORY OVER MTNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LESS THAN FCST BUT STILL ENOUGH TO BRING THE FRENCH BROAD UP TO
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT BLANTYRE
AROUND 10 AM MON. A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT.
RAINFALL MUCH LESS OVER UPSTATE SC AND THE SALUDA RIVER AT WEST
PELZER IS NOT EXPECTED TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE SO THE ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HAVE TWEAKED POPS/QPF/TEMPS/DP/RH/WIND. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 259 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATES THAT A BAND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS WORKED
OVER MOST OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF SC AND GA. THE
CWA SHOULD HAVE NEARLY 100 PERCENT COVERAGE BY 0Z. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATES THAT RAINFALL RATES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT 1-2 INCHES WILL FALL OVER
THE MTNS...ELSEWHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS IN THE HWO.

REGIONAL VWP/S AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT H925-H85 WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
NEEDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE 130 KT UPPER JET AXIS WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT SLIGHTLY SLOWING THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION TO WARRANT CHANCE MORNING POPS IN THE ERN
HALF. PROFILES WILL STEADILY DRY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING ANTICIPATED IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS. THIS LOW LEVEL WARMING
AND COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATES OVER SRN ONTARIO MONDAY...TWO
POTENT SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
IMPROVING NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH 850
MB TEMPS FALLING TO MINUS 6 C DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST NW UPSLOPE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE SNOW SHOWER MENTION...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TN BORDER AS THE EPISODE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. DRY HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION TUE THROUGH WED WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ECM REMAINS THE FASTEST...WITH THE GFS THE SLOWEST...IN
EJECTING THE SRN STREAM LOW FROM TX TO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN
THE WEEK. A BLEND OF TIMING IS PREFERRED...WHICH BRINGS THE
HIGHEST POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD IN THE LIQUID PHASE. THE TRAILING
NRN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...LIKELY KEEPING ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE WEDGE BOUNDARY EXTENDS WELL
INTO NORTHERN GA. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VLIFR AND LIFR CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHRA AND POSSIBLE ISO TS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LLVL CIGS AND VISIBILITY MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY DURING
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE ORIGINAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE THE RAINFALL RATES LESSEN.

I EXPECT CURRENT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
BEGIN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. TERMINALS
SHOULD BECOME VFR BETWEEN 12-14Z MON. AFTER SUNRISE...SW TO W WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE BY
18Z...EXCEPT KHKY.

THE LLVL JET WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. SPEEDS AT H85 SHOULD RANGE FROM 45-55
KTS...HOWEVER...SFC WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAT 15KT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LLWS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILL TERMINALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE...PILOT REPORTS...AND VWP FOR POSSIBLE LLWS AMENDMENTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-065-066-507-509 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ058-059-062>064 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1137 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011645-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1137 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE URGENT WEATHER
STATEMENT...CAENPWGSP...FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE STRONG
WINDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE GEORGIA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS
ARE LIKELY...AND A FEW MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD APPROACH FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
SALUDA RIVER AT WEST PELZER...AND THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT
BLANTYRE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD ADVISORY...CAEFLSGSP...FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

AS THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS CROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GREAT...A FAVORABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WILL EXIST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS EVENING...AND BE SURE TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AS CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND...RAINFALL...OR
THUNDERSTORM OBSERVATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW CAMPOBELLO         35.08N 82.20W
12/31/2006                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE AT JUG FACTORY ROAD AND SPENCER
            CREEK ROAD.

&&

BSH