Heavy rain caused street flooding in Wilmington.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused street flooding in Wilmington.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 2:37 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 337 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY BECAUSE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN MORE TENACIOUS THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. AFTER LOWERING EXPECTED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE AND AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE. THIS IS LESS UNSTABLE THAN THOUGHT THIS MORNING...BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STALLED COLD FRONT NOW LIES ALONG THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING IN THE FLORENCE VICINITY WITH A SPIRALING MOTION NOTED IN CLOUDS AND RADAR ECHOES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES...IN WHAT PASSES FOR THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MAY YET RESULT IN ISOLATED FLOODING WITH 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING IN A SHORT PERIOD. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM IS MUCH FASTER SINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND TROUGH AXIS SOUTH AND EAST...AND WOULD RESULT IN A QUICKER END TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WE ARE HEDGING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WITH AT CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-95. ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70-74 RANGE ARE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM TIME FRAME. DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW THE MID-LEVELS DRYING OUR CONSIDERABLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. INHERITED POPS HAD THE TEMPORAL TREND LAID OUT NICELY WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE MORNING HOURS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH LOWER VALUES. TWEAKED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WORTH NOTING IS THE FEATURE THE GFS IS DEVELOPING OFF CAPE FEAR LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS FEEDBACK. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NICE DAY TO HOPEFULLY DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL LOOKING FOR A TRANSITION INTO AN EAST COAST UPPER TROF BY THE WEEKEND. SFC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SLOPPY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY...WITH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP. GFS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE FROPA...NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST UNTIL ABOUT 12Z SAT. HPC FORECAST IS FASTER AND MORE CONVINCING WITH THE FROPA. WILL NOT BITE ON THE DRY MEX POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP THE CHANCE IN THERE...AND CARRY IT ON INTO SATURDAY. DRY FORECAST SUN-MON WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW CLIMO. BELIEVE THAT THE BUST POTENTIAL LIES IN THE FRONT BEING ABLE TO GET FARTHER SOUTH THAN ADVERTISED...WHICH WOULD CUT INTO THE SATURDAY PRECIP POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN EVEN COOLER WEEKEND TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLOUD COVER HAS RETARDED THE PROCESS OF DESTABILIZATION. STILL THINK THINGS WILL CRANK UP AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN FORECAST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER BY 00Z...HOWEVER CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MAKING THE CEILING AND VISIBILITIES A CHALLENGE. MODELS WANT TO KEEP FLO SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. NORTHEAST FLOW NUDGES IN ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AFTER 06Z. THIS COULD SCOUR OUT LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR ILM AND LBT...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH. VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND HAS LED TO VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL LEAD TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WIND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BY LATE TONIGHT THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS WILL ACQUIRE A MORE OFFSHORE COMPONENT...AND EVEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-3 FT AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS VIA 925/850MB PROGS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN BENIGN WITH A 2-3 FT. RANGE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THRU THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DOMINATED LARGELY BY THE SEABREEZE THU INTO FRI. LATEST GFS DOES NOT BRING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS UNTIL SAT MORNING...AND EVEN AFTER IT DOES THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SURGE BEHIND IT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...RAS AVIATION...HDL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 607 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 NCZ097-100-101-281015- PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER- 607 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EAST FACING BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO EAST BALD HEAD ISLAND TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON... BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-281015- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- HORRY-WILLIAMSBURG-GEORGETOWN- 607 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON... BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AMZ250-252-254-256-281015- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 607 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RJD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain produced street flooding along Market Street at the 1500 block. The road was briefly closed. A NWS employee reported six inches of standing water downtown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 56558.