Lake-Effect Snow in New York, February 2 to 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

.UPDATE...

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN GENERATING SEVERAL NARROWS SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE.
THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS ARE NOW CONCENTRATED OVER GENESEE...
SRN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH ERN LAKE ERIE/FAR
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THIS IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH IN A FEW
HOURS ...EXPECT THE LAKE ERIE SNOW BANDS TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NRN ERIE/GENESEE COUNTIES THROUGH 11PM...AND THROUGH 10 AM FOR
AREAS TO THE SOUTH. WILL LET THIS RIDE FOR NOW...THEN ISSUE A
QUICK UPDATE AROUND 11 PM.

THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS STARTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG
THE WESTERN STRETCHES OF THE LAKE. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING
FOR OUR THREE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BEGINS AT 11 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
DETAILS TO BE CONCERNED WITH. GENERAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT
KROC TAF WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
KART THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER WEST
A SQUALL OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COMING THROUGH KBUF VCNTY
HAS NOW EXITED THE TERMINAL. LAST FEW RADAR SCANS SHOWING LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY BURGEONING OVER LAKE ERIE AS COLD AIR DEEPENS AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND FIRST FRONT DECREASES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CATCH
KBUF TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE SINKING SOUTH.

TONIGHT EXPECT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON 260
FETCH...WHICH WILL LIMIT AVIATION IMPACTS TO KJHW. EXPECT VSBY TO
DETERIORATE INTO IFR RANGE BY LATE EVENING WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AS
LAKE EFFECT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING
CLOUD BEARING FLOW BACKS QUICKLY TO 230/220 FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT AND RESTRICTED
CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE KBUF AND KIAG TERMINALS FROM MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE IT WEAKENS AND PUSHES INTO THE NIAGARA PENINSULA.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW BAND TO EXTEND INLAND
TO KROC AS WELL. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT
NORTH TOWARDS KART BY MIDDAY AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY/CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR OR LOWER.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 308 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON...
NOT TO MENTION SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS
COULD BE THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF SYNOPTIC SNOWS WORKING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A GENERAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOUT AN INCH
OR SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODEL QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF ROCHESTER WITH A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALSO COULD SEE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OFF BOTH LAKES IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY.

LAKE SNOWS...

OFF LAKE ERIE...WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL DEVELOP LAKE SNOWS SOUTH OF
THE BUFFALO AREA INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. VERY COLD AIR OF
AROUND -18C AT 850 MB WILL BE BATTLING SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION WITH RIDGING TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LAKE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AND
LIFTS LAKE BAND NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND
POINTS NORTH. LAKE BAND LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND REINFORCES THE ARCTIC AIR WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -25C. MORE INTENSE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD
MOVE SOUTH BACK ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA QUICKLY THEN SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER INCLUDING ALLEGANY COUNTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY IMPRESSIVE
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS DEVELOPING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND VIRTUALLY NO CAP
ALONG WITH OMEGA FIELDS OVER 30 MB/S SHOULD RESULT IN INTENSE LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER 3 INCHES PER HOUR VERY
POSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING ALREADY ISSUED TO COVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2 FEET LIKELY BY MONDAY
MORNING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...SIMILAR OR EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE LAKE PARAMETERS
SEEN OFF LAKE ERIE WILL BE EXPERIENCED OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ABOUT A
6 HOUR DELAY. LAKE SNOWS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
MEANDERING FROM THE TUG HILL NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERTOWN AREA AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SETTLING BACK ACROSS THE TUG HILL LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST INTENSE WITH A FULL LAKE FETCH IN PLACE AND EXTREME INSTABILITY
WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG. VERY INTENSE LAKE SNOWS
SHOULD BE REALIZED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP
TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING ALREADY ISSUED TO COVER THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO AS MUCH AS 5 FEET OR
EVEN MORE ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

PROLONGED COLD FLOW ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. GFS KEEPS
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS HOVER AROUND -20C
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU WILL BE IN NEARLY CONTINUOUS LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIOS...THUS
PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE DURING THIS FRIGID EPISODE.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TEENS TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW MODERATION TO THE 20S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE WELL BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SINGLE NUMBER TO LOWER TEENS
ELSEWHERE...MODERATING TO THE SINGLE NUMBER AND TEENS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO GALES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO GALES AGAIN ON
SUNDAY....POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR STORM BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. COLD WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

SHORT TERM...TJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

NYZ010-011-031800-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES THIS EVENING BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER BOUT OF LAKE SNOWS IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019-020-085-031800-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND PUSH THE LAKE SNOWS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOWBANDS PERSIST...MOST LIKELY OVER THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE AND SKI COUNTRY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH SOUTH
ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY SNOW FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION AND THE RETURN WESTERLY
FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO TWO FEET ADDITIONAL SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-013-014-031800-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY LAKE SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE OFF LAKE ERIE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND OFF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ021-031800-
ALLEGANY-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY SNOW FREE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA AND THE RETURN WESTERLY FLOW
WILL AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWELVE TO
EIGHTEEN INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006>008-031800-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE TUG HILL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTH
OF WATERTOWN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION REINFORCING THE
LAKE SNOWS AND AGAIN SHIFTING THEM SOUTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SQUALLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL SIX TO TWELVE INCHES ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE TO FOUR FEET OF NEW SNOW IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY ON
NORTH SOUTH ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-031800-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1258 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

NYZ001-002-010>012-085-030000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
522 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING...

AT 515 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NARROW BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE...THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND GRAND ISLAND. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA BETWEEN 520 PM AND 630 PM EST AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND VERY SLIPPERY. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND BE ALERT FOR VERY LOW VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY ROADS.

HITCHCOCK