Hail in New Mexico, March 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
228 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

.SHORT TERM...
CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF
IT.  SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THIS FLOW AND IMPART MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS...AND CU IS DISCERNIBLE
UNDER THIN CIRRUS SHIELD.  A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WAS PARKED OVER
FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA.

THINK MODERATE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
STOCKTON PLATEAU WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF CUTOFF LOW.  A 100 KT H25 JET IS ALSO PROGGED TO NOSE INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING
VENTILATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.  SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE 7.5 TO 8 C/KM...0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS 60 TO 70
KT...AND SFC BASED CAPE AT LEAST 1000 J/KG THINK WE COULD SEE LARGE
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED
IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS THERE TOO...SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.  LASTLY...PWATS ARE AROUND 1 INCH MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 250% ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  THINK SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED.  LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MARFA...ALPINE...
MONAHANS...ANDREWS...AND LAMESA LINE COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  MENTIONED ALL OF THE ABOVE
IN THE HWO.

WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE PREVALENT.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TAME OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT OF COURSE AROUND IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ROTATING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MEXICO...NEW
MEXICO AND THEN NORTH INTO COLORADO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
CIRCULATION AROUND THE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW WILL PULL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO.

PRECIPITATION CONCERNS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AGAIN.
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN THREE TO FOUR TIMES NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS.  MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL LIFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
DEGREES/KM AND LI/S APPROACHING NEGATIVE 6 INDICATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SBCAPE IS ABOUT THE
SAME BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  THE SPC HAS THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR BOTH DAYS.
AGAIN...WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY GET SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL...THE BEST AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THE FURTHER WEST THE
UPPER LOW...THE FURTHER WEST THE BEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.  BELIEVE ANY ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WILL BE MORE HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING RELATED AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT...LEANING TOWARDS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL RUN BETWEEN
TWO AND A HALF AND THREE INCHES OVER NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...GAINES
COUNTY...AND DAWSON COUNTY.  TWO TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OVER THE
REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN AND LEA COUNTY.  ONE AND A HALF TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER EDDY COUNTY.  THESE ARE STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS AMOUNT
OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS...WILL
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  COORDINATION WITH WEST GULF RFC INDICATES
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING ALONG AREA
RIVERS AS THEY ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE.  BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLOOD PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE
BUT WILL MENTION IN HWOMAF AND SPSMAF.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WILL EITHER LEAVE CURRENT GRIDS OR POPULATE WITH THE
MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS.  A QUICK GLANCE AT MODELS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MOST DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  72  61  73  /  50  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                56  71  60  71  /  60  70  70  40
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  65  76  /  30  60  70  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  73  63  74  /  50  60  70  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  67  53  67  /  50  70  70  30
HOBBS NM                   57  70  50  70  /  60  70  80  50
MARFA TX                   49  69  48  70  /  40  60  70  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  72  62  72  /  50  60  70  50
ODESSA TX                  62  73  63  72  /  50  60  70  50
WINK TX                    65  77  59  78  /  50  60  70  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

67/74

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-231800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1254 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007 /1154 AM MDT THU MAR 22 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
GLASS MOUNTAINS...AND STOCKTON PLATEAU THROUGH TONIGHT.  MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG
BEND REGION AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A MARFA...ALPINE...MONAHANS...ANDREWS...AND
LAMESA LINE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STORMS SPREADING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...WITH SCATTERED STORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS WILL BE ON
FRIDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THEREFORE...THESE
AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BY 200 PM CDT FROM THE
DAVIS AND GLASS MOUNTAINS...NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE VAN
HORN AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS PECOS...SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND