Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, March 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON IS PRECIPITATION AND IF A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE NAM WAS INDICATING BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES OF WATER OVER SW KS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO
SHOWING ROBUST MOISTURE BEING PUSHED INTO THE REGION BY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALREADY AVAILABLE AND
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY AS OUR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SE COLORADO. GIVEN
THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
ACROSS OUR NW CWA...ANY EXTRA RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD FUEL TO THE
FIRE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALSO SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE AN ISSUE
EARLIER TONIGHT. EARLIER TODAY TSRA OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
PRODUCED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL SO GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT SEE NO
REASON WHY A FEW STORMS IN OUR CWA WILL NOT ALSO PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL AS WELL.

DAYS 3-7...

WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM ALL THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TODAY
PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS OUR
FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK MID LVL WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ENHANCING
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT SEE LITTLE REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF 85H TEMPS PROGS OF +14 TO +17C ON 00Z TUE AND 00Z WED.

OUR NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM REMAINS PROGGED TO CROSS INTO THE PLAINS MID
WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MID WEEK. ON THURSDAY AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES E/NE OF THE AREA A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS KS INTO
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE 24H CHANGE IN 925/85H TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE SEASONAL ON THURSDAY. TIMING STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND LEAVE POPS AS IS FOR
NOW WED-WED PM.

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL BE OUT BY 4 PM
&&

DAYS 8-10...

THE OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY MARCH 30TH THROUGH SUNDAY APRIL 1ST CALLS FOR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  70  52  74 /  70  70  20  20
GCK  56  70  49  73 /  80  70   0   0
EHA  53  70  48  74 /  80  50   0   0
LBL  57  72  51  74 /  90  60  10  10
HYS  57  69  52  73 /  70  40  20  10
P28  61  72  60  73 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN31/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
500 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007 /400 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC