A weak upper disturbance moved into a very moist an unstable air mass over southern New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A weak upper disturbance moved into a very moist an unstable air mass over southern New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 1:10 PM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 210 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2007 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR FROM SOME OF THE STORMS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE HAS APPEARED TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TODAY WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS UP TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND ON TO NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS PUTS MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SOUTHEAST FLOW. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S... EXISTS OVER THE CWA. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND DESPITE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD EASILY PASS THE CONVECTIVE TEMP. ADDITIONALLY. INVERTED TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE BIG BEND IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AND WILL ADD MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY POPPING UP EASTERN CWA WITH PRETTY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD TOP HGTS FOR THIS EARLY IN THE DAY. ALL IN ALL SHOULD BE ACTIVE NIGHT WITH FLOOD POTENTIAL MOST PRESSING PROBLEM...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MODELS MOVE INVERTED TROUGH TO WESTERN CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR STORMS TO LAST ALL NIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS FAIRLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE VERY SLOWLY DROPS BACK SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CANADA AND THE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD. TROUGH DOES DRAG BACK DOOR COOL FRONT INTO AREA. GFS SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM IS ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH IT BUT MAY ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH REARRANGES THE UPPER RIDGE INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNMENT OVER ARIZONA AND UTAH BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS SHOWS LAYERED MOISTURE TO DIMINISH SOME BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT ALSO SHOWS SOME STRONG IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECREASED THE POPS AFTER SUNDAY BUT IF GFS CONTINUES THIS SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS...ACTIVITY MAY NOT DECREASE MUCH AT ALL FROM THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID 12/00Z-13/00Z... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF MVFR FOR CIGS AND VSBY. STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 73 94 74 95 74 / 40 20 30 20 40 SIERRA BLANCA TX 66 89 67 88 66 / 30 20 30 20 40 LAS CRUCES 69 94 70 95 70 / 40 20 30 20 40 ALAMOGORDO 66 91 67 93 66 / 30 20 30 20 40 CLOUDCROFT 50 68 51 67 49 / 40 30 40 40 50 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 92 69 93 68 / 40 30 30 20 40 SILVER CITY 62 86 63 83 60 / 50 30 40 30 40 DEMING 68 92 69 93 68 / 50 20 30 20 40 LORDSBURG 69 93 70 92 69 / 50 20 30 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 17/99
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2007 NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-121645- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION- TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH- 1115 AM MDT WED JUL 11 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 1229 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2007 NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-120030- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION- TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES... ALAMOGORDO...MESCALERO...CLOUDCROFT...TIMBERON...LORDSBURG... DEMING...LAS CRUCES...EL PASO...SIERRA BLANCA...DELL CITY 1229 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2007 ...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHWEST OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER OTERO...EL PASO...AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS PONDING AND FLOWING WATER ACROSS AREA ROADS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE TELEVISION STATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. PARK
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 22 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Some of the roads from Boles Acres (south of Alamogordo) to Dog Canyon were under water. Dog Canyon Road was temporarily closed to due flooded low water crossings.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 51534.