Damaging Wind in New Mexico, April 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1028 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.UPDATE...
TSTMS WITH HVY RN CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD WITH DEFORMATION ZONE IN
ASSOCN WITH UPPER LOW TO W. 12Z MAF SOUNDING REVEALS HIGH MSTR
CONTENT IN ATMOSPHERE WITH PW/S OF 1.18 (225% OF NORMAL). NEW
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO ESE OF KMAF WERE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
UNCONTAMINATED FROM PRECIP. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACRS PB. FARTHER SW PRECIP HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND HAVE
REFLECTED DECREASED POPS THERE BUT STILL HIGH END CHANCE.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TRANS PECOS WILL SEE INSOLATION
INCREASE THIS P.M. AND 12Z NAM STILL SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
TSTMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS P.M. AND MOVING E ACRS MUCH OF THE SRN
PB/LOWER TRANS PECOS.

.HYDROLOGY...HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS HAVE CERTAINLY INCREASED WITH A
RIVER FLOOD WATCH/OUTLOOK FROM SHEFFIELD TO CHANDLER RANCH FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING ONGOING ON RIO GRANDE AT JOHNSON RANCH...
WITH LEVELS AT ACTION STAGE FROM PRESIDIO...LAJITAS...TERLINGUA...
AND CASTOLON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007/

DISCUSSION..
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL IMPACT EVENTS WILL CENTER ON SEVERE CONVECTION
AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

EXIGENCIES OF THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION PRECLUDE A DETAILED
DISCUSSION. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HANDLED WELL BY THE
MODELS AND WE SEE LITTLE NEED TO DEVIATE FROM A CONSENSUS OF THEIR
SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM QPF WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES TODAY UNDER
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT AND INCREASING PWAT. THIS AXIS
WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A
MAX QPF OVER AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS TONIGHT.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY FOR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE
AND EAST TO THE PECOS. SEVERE CONVECTION ALSO A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE INSOLATION IS MAXIMIZED.

PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST. WILL HOLD ONTO POPS
ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES IN THE MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN
THIS SYSTEM AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS
WILL BE BRIEF...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS POOR AT THE MOMENT...
HENCE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD A BIT OWING TO EXPECTED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND LOWERED INSOLATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OTHERWISE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE USED.
HPC QPF LOOKS REASONABLE BUT DID LOWER AMOUNTS TONIGHT BY ABOUT 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              79  62  75  61  /  60  70  70  20
CARLSBAD NM                76  58  85  58  /  50  50  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  81  63  83  64  /  50  90  50  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  60  83  63  /  50  80  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  53  81  59  /  50  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                   76  59  82  60  /  60  60  20  20
MARFA TX                   74  51  79  50  /  50  50  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  60  79  60  /  60  80  50  20
ODESSA TX                  79  60  81  61  /  60  80  50  20
WINK TX                    81  60  87  60  /  50  70  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...
     TERRELL.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-292100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
533 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007 /433 AM MDT SUN APR 29 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
BIG BEND...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU...AND THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. LASTLY...RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE FROM CANDELARIA
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK TO SANDERSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER BY MID MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

TXZ068-069-075-291700-
CRANE-PECOS-UPTON-
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BAKERSFIELD AT 1057 AM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.

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