Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
215 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT CARBON
COUNTY AS OF 2030Z.  CURRENT SHALLOW INVERSION BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY CAPPED THE AREA WITH THE FOCUS OF DEEPER
CONVECTION BEING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AT 20Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA BY 05Z.  SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG
THAT FEATURE AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  FOR THE WEST
PART THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCAL WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.  FURTHER EAST...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AT KCDR
AND KAIA.  HOWEVER...AS STATED BEFORE THE AIR MASS IS CAPPED WITH
THE CURRENT CIN VALUES OF UP TO 400 J/KG.  DOUBTFUL IF THE CAP WILL
BE BROKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED AS LOTS OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IS AVAILABLE AND THE CAP IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING.  LATEST SPC OUTLOOK THROUGH THE EVENING HAS MOVED
FURTHER WEST AND INTO AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE HIGHEST.  FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM
DAY...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WYOMING PLAINS.  MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CAP TO
BREAK.

.LONG TERM...SAT THRU THU...STRONG UPPER RIDGE STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT THRU SUN...WITH SW-NE AXIS SHIFTG JUST E
OF AREA BY SUN NGT.  HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WX AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT.  MAIN CHANGE SINCE WORKING YDA IS THE PASSAGE OF THE PAC NW
UPPER TROF AND ITS COLD FRONT ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE.  GFS 06Z AND
NOW THE 12Z RUNS ARE LIFTING THE UPPER TROF NEWD MUCH FURTHER
N...WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST WEAKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR NOT
MUCH COOLING.  BETTER CHC OF TSTMS WILL BE MAINLY ON TUE NOW.  LATER
DAYS DOMINATED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WHICH REBUILDS BACK
INTO THE REGION.  CONTD HOT WED AND THU WITH A FEW LATE DAY TSTMS
PSBL.

&&

.AVIATION...A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.  AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z IN THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND OVER THE KLSK.  THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WEILAND

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1137 AM MDT THU JUN 21 2007

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-221130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-
SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE
RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1137 AM MDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE STORMS WILL BE
FORMED AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION AT THE
SAME TIME A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.  THE FRONT
WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 4 PM...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS.  ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING OVER ALBANY AND CARBON
COUNTIES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND SOME BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE GROWTH SHOULD ANY FIRES START.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DUE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND SOME BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

WEILAND