Hail in Nebraska, June 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
247 PM MDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
PANHANDLE INTO EAST CENTRAL WY ALTHO STILL APPEARS TO BE CAPPED.
SOME WEAK HI BASED SHWRS HAVE DVLPD OVER SE WY SHIFTG NEWD.
MEANWHILE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BE MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS
OVER THE PNHNDL WITH DEWPOINTS DECREASING.  STILL EXPECT A BOX TO BE
ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR STG TSTMS.  BOTH
GFS AND NAM BULLSEYEING THE PNHNDL WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK THIS
EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLDS BASED ON MODELS.  MASS OF
MSTR WITH SOME PCPN NOW MOVG NNE ACRS ERN AZ WILL BE SHIFTG OVER THE
REGION LATER TNGT INTO TUE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.  WE
MAY HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SFC FORCING SETUP ON TUE AFTN/EVNG THAN
TODAY...ALTHO NOT AS WARM/UNSTBL.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH MON. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVER THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE WED THEN WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW THU. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRI WITH THE FORECAST
AREA LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE RIDGE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SATURDAY. A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW OVER WY
VEERING SLIGHTLY TO WEST SOUTHWEST. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FURTHER
MON TO WEST NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CUTOFF/TROUGH MOVING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE BEST MOISTURE WED WILL STAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY LOW POPS WED OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THU WILL
BE WARMER AND DRY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE WHILE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ARE SCANT. FRI WILL BE WARMER AGAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO
BORDER. SAT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LATE DAY STORMS IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS...AS OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT
INTERACTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE. A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE OF STORMS SUN. WEAK SURFACE BASED COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE MON ALTHOUGH MON LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THE REST OF THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL WY AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY BE PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THIS ALSO COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TNGT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXPECTED RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1015 AM MDT MON JUN 11 2007

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-121045-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-
CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-NIOBRARA-SOUTHWEST CARBON-NORTH CARBON-
SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-LARAMIE RANGE-
PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1015 AM MDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING AND MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY BE MOST AT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...A FEW LATE DAY STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE