Damaging Winds in Montana, July 6 to 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
832 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONVECTION THAT FIRED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL MONTANA HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY. IMPRESSIVE JUMP IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE FLOW HAS BACKED IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR GREAT FALLS. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS REVEAL SOME ORGANIZED CELL
STRUCTURES ACROSS PETROLEUM COUNTY AND THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANDING
CHANCES SLIGHTLY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH GIVEN VERY DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER WAS INCREASED AREA WIDE TONIGHT AND
THIS WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. MCZ

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN
ALBERTA TRAVELS EAST. IN ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND NAM INCLUDE A
SMALL SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THIS EVENING NEAR OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHICH TRAVELS NORTHEAST ABOVE A SURFACE LOW COVERING THE AREA
TONIGHT. GFS GENERATES A VORT MAX THAT TRAVELS WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
BOTH MODELS PLACE THE COLD FRONT NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND PRODUCE QPF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES...BUT NOT
MUCH EAST OF THAT. THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE TO THE WEST. THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR SO WILL KEEP POPS LESS THAN
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TONIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON SATURDAY AND THE COOL AIR BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE ZONES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
FROM 32C DEGREES LATE AFTERNOON TODAY TO AROUND 24C DEGREES DURING
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AROUND A 10F
DEGREE DROP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FROM TODAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLER AIR OVER THE CWA. BUT
ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW NEAR THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
OUR ZONES COULD GENERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT SEEMS REASONABLE
TO HAVE SMALL POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH WHICH WILL
GENERATE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY.

COOLING WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND +15C. SURFACE HIGHS SHOULD FINALLY GET BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER COULD PUSH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WITH COLD FRONT STALLED
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONVECTION ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY. THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
INTRODUCE COOLER AIR EARLY ON IN THIS PERIOD....AN UNUSUAL PATTERN
FOR JULY. MODELS THEN SEEM TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH POSSIBLE
DISTURBANCES DROPPING DOWN AND BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS...WITH THE FIRST ONE ROLLING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUS
ADDED MENTION FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
COOLER FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD NOW SO LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT ACCORDINGLY. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. JAMBA

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WIND CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY ON SATURDAY. CB

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAY WAS THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY THIS YEAR AT THE AIRPORT IN
GLASGOW. THE OFFICIAL HIGH AT THE AIRPORT WAS 102 DEGREES.
DOWNTOWN GLASGOW REPORTED A HIGH OF 106 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY OF 107 WAS SET BACK DURING THE HOT SUMMER
OF 1936. DURING AN AVERAGE SUMMER A 100 DEGREE DAY OCCURS TWICE AT
GLASGOW.  1936 STILL HOLDS THE RECORD WITH 22 DAYS WITH A HIGH
TEMPERATURE ABOVE 100 DEGREES. THE ALL-TIME RECORD AT GLASGOW WAS
113 DEGREES...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON 7/31/1900. HERE ARE A FEW
OTHER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY:

WINNETT: 105F
JORDAN: 104F
NASHUA: 103F
GLENDIVE: 101F
MALTA: 102F
PORT OF MORGAN: 101F
WOLF POINT: 100F

CB

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
250 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2007

MTZ016>027-059>062-071200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
250 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.