Damaging Winds in Montana, July 23, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT MON JUL 23 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A QUICK UPDATE TO FORTIFY POPS A BIT IN THE WESTERN ZONES AS
CONVECTION FINALLY EDGING IN. ALSO ADDED IN SOME POPS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AS A FEW ECHOES HAVE POPPED UP AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SOME COOLING TOPS OVER PRAIRIE COUNTY. REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO WILL ONLY MAKE THE POP
CHANGES AND ACCORDINGLY...SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR HAVING A FIRM HOLD ON THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL HOLD THE NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE AREA
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING MUCH A COOLER AIRMASS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...MONSOONAL MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA TONIGHT. CONVECTION THAT HAS BEGUN
POPPING OVER W WY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT. STRONG CAPPING MAY KEEP
THEM FROM MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TOO FAR...SO REDUCED
POP/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
STAYING ABOVE 70.

TUESDAY...A SPOKE OF ENERGY SEEN OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL FORCE THE THERMAL RIDGE TO
BUDGE EAST AND BE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. A THERMAL
LOW WILL HELP TO DRIVE SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SE ZONES AND HELP TO
DRIVE TEMPS ABOVE 100 NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AS A RESULT.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW AND MAY KEEP TEMPS
FROM REACHING THE CENTURY MARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVES NORTHEAST. BY THE TIME THE CONVECTION REACHES
NORTHEAST MONTANA...IT LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MANITOBA TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
THEREFORE...THE STORMS MAY NOT REACH THEIR POTENTIAL WITH SEVERITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL THAT MUCH WITH GOOD MIXING OCCURRING.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZING AS THE FLOW VEERS. DRYING ALSO LOOKS TO OCCUR SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE WILL BE THE TEMPS AS THEY WILL MAY GO ABOVE THE 80S NORTH OF
THE HI-LINE. THE NAM LOOKED WAY TOO WET AND COOL AND WAS DISREGARDED
(SINCE IT USUALLY DOES A FAIR JOB BEYOND 36 HOURS ANYWAYS). JAMBA

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE PATTERN OF LATE.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD RIDGE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS...WHICH WILL MEAN
THE HEAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE AS EARLY THIS WEEK.  IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
DECENT PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES THURSDAY.  IT TURNS HOTTER AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH 90S WIDESPREAD.  A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 100
AGAIN BY SUNDAY.  THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE WELL CAPPED UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN BY TUESDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT A COLD FRONT
AND SOME COOLER AIR WOULD FILTER INTO THE AREA BY AROUND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. CB

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...MONSOONAL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHERN-MOST
EXTENT APPEARS TO BE IN SOUTHERN MONTANA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS...WHICH SHOULD PULL HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID
90S. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HOTTER THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED THE MODELS HINT AT A CHANGE ON OUR DOORSTEP...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE WHETHER THIS IS A PATTERN CHANGE OR JUST A
BRIEF FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. OUTSIDE OF OF A LEFTOVER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FROM WEDNESDAYS WAVE...THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AJZ

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF KGGW.  LOCALLY STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STORMS.  CB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL LAST ONE MORE DAY FOR TUESDAY.
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
121 AND 122 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CARRY SOME CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE NOT COMING
TOGETHER FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. A PHONE CALL WITH A
CUSTOMER FIRMED THIS UP AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
THIS POSSIBILITY IF THINGS CHANGE. JAMBA

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HERE
ARE SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY:

STATION        JULY 24TH     RECORDS BEGAN

GLASGOW        108/1929        1893
GLENDIVE       112/1894        1893
SIDNEY         100/2003        1910
JORDAN         108/1931        1905
CULBERTSON     105/1936        1900
FLATWILLOW     106/1959        1913
MEDICINE LAKE  104/1931        1911
SAVAGE         107/1931        1905

THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES THIS MORNING TIES WITH 1936 AS THE
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE ON THE DATE.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT GLASGOW HAS BEEN AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES THE
LAST 4 NIGHTS.  THIS IS THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE STRETCH WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 DEGREES AT GLASGOW.  THIS BREAKS THE RECORD OF
3 CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS SET IN 1900...1930...AND 2003.

CB/SIMONSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW