The St. Francis River rose above flood stage during a heavy rain event around mid-month.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The St. Francis River rose above flood stage during a heavy rain event around mid-month. The ground was already wet due to abundant rainfall in December and early January.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 15, 9:34 PM CST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 934 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007 .UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE SENT OUT...TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS MISSOURI. IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO WORK ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT. ALSO RAISED CLOUD PERCENTAGES ACROSS WEST SECTIONS OF THE FA...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLEARING IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WERE ON TRACK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007/ AS OF 330 PM...THE LAST OF THE MAJOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS LEAVING THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE STRATUS ONLY CLOUD BAND STRETCHES WEST ALONG THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVER AREA...FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL TO MOUNT CARMEL IL...AS OF 21Z. TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE...MID CLOUDS CONTINUE ABOVE THE STRATUS DECK. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WRN KY AND SWRN IN THROUGH 00Z /6PM/...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN THE DIGITAL/TABULAR TEXT PRODUCTS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM/GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER NRN AR/SRN MO. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD AIR MASS INVERSION STRONGLY IN PLACE...THERMAL AND WIND GRADIENT SHOULD LIFT PARCELS ENOUGH TO FOR CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT OVER SERN MO...LEAVING ONLY SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THE DIGITIAL/TEXT PRODUCTS...A VERY SLOW CLEARING TREND FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATELLITE LOOPS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS GUIDANCE KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE A SWITCH TO ZONAL FLOW DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...TEMPERING ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE RISES...AND KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. THE ACCESS TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE COMES INTO PLAY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA IS EJECTED INTO WESTERN MO BY SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD AIR IN PLACE...ALONG WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS A FACTOR...A LIGHT WINTERY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING EARLY ON...KEEPING MOST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH GFS MOS VALUES...BOTH IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 435 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-161045- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 435 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
At Patterson, where flood stage is 16 feet, the St. Francis River crested at 16.20 feet. This resulted in minor flooding of low-lying fields and woods near the river.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 7637.