Flooding was observed on February 20th at both the Blackwater River and Petite Saline Creek, due to the rapid melt of snow and ice.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Flooding was observed on February 20th at both the Blackwater River and Petite Saline Creek, due to the rapid melt of snow and ice.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 4:02 AM CST, 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 402 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2007 .DISCUSSION... ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING WE SEE ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DESPITE THE SHEARING FOUR CORNERS TROUGH TO OUR WEST. RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA ARE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RETURNS COINCIDE WELL WITH FRONTOGENIC FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG ITS FOOT THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL HANDLE IT WITH SPRINKLES FOR NOW ALONG THE IOWA BORDER...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN CASE IT EXPANDS ANY FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY WE HAD A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS OF 3 AM...THE FRONT LOOKED TO HAVE JUST EXITED THE CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST. THANKS TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WE WILL BE SPARED ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR SURGING SOUTH TODAY. THATS NOT TO SAY TEMPERATURES WONT TAKE A BIT OF A DIVE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL. COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH PUT ME IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE UP AND DOWN...BUT IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A BROAD RIDGE MOVING IN ACROSS THE CONUS ALONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM JET WHICH WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH. GOING FORECAST NUMBERS SEEM REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OUR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATTENTION IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. LATEST ECMWF/GFS/AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS STILL POINT AT A POTENT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY...GENERATING A COMPACT SURFACE LOW IN KANSAS THAT WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO THE PRECISE PATH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TAKE...SO DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAMMERED OUT OVER THE COMING WEEK. LEFT THE GOING FORECAST ALONE FOR THE MOST PART AS NEW MODEL RUNS DID NOT ADVERTISE ANYTHING RADICALLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DID ADJUST PRECIP TYPE AND CHANCES A LITTLE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN SOME HIGHER POPS IN CONCERT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. CUTTER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /301 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007/ SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTHEAST INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW...AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS...SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORCING IS QUITE WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOISTURE ALSO LIMITED. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE PRECIPITATION WISE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PREFER THE DRIER NAM/WRF. EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AT MOST WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOUBTFUL. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IS RELATIVELY MILD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY. COOLEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER MISSOURI...LEADING TO A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. PREFER TO GO WITH WARMER FWC GUIDANCE. DB EXTENDED FCST... ALL EYES REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH AND ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET TAKE AIM ON THE CENTRAL STATES. CHANGES WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SPREADING PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCING RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A RAPID NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS ON FRIDAY SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT WARM FRONTOGENESIS OVER SRN KS/SRN MO. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER WARMING OVER NRN MO WHILE THE WARM SECTOR PUNCHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. COLLABORATED FORECAST HAS HIGHS AROUND 50 ALONG THE IOWA BORDER TO MID 60S OVER WEST CENTRAL MO/ERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE TEMPERATURE DILEMMA...THE RETURN OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH 850MB WIND PROGS FAIL TO CAPTURE ANYTHING MORE THAN A BROAD 30-40 KT FETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE. ON SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ENTERS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND RAPIDLY TURN NORTHEAST ACROSS KS/NW MO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE JET CORE EXITS TO THE NORTH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...RAPID COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSE VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE OCCLUDING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS JUNCTURE... WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED AT A MINIMUM. THE BIG UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT IS SEVERE WEATHER...FOR WHICH SEVERAL LARGE NEGATIVES ARE APPARENT. AS IS TYPICAL WITH EARLY SEASON COMPACT LOWS...THE SHEAR IS PRETTY OVERWHELMING COMPARED TO THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROSPECTS FOR EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS. SECONDLY...AFTER A MONTH OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS...ONE CERTAINLY CANNOT EXPECT ANY FORMIDABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MODIFICATION TO OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH IN JUST 24 TO 36 HOURS. I WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. WITH THAT SAID...ANY INSOLATION COULD CHANGE THINGS DRAMATICALLY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...SO I WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO MAKE MESOSCALE PREDICTIONS ON DAY 5. OTHER CONCERNS...ONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL. ARGUABLY THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING MUCH TOO FAST TO BE OF CONCERN...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST COULD BRING AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE REGION LOCALLY. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE STANDING WATER AND REMAINING SNOWPACK THAT EXISTS ABOVE THE FROZEN SOIL. HOW MUCH GROUND FILTRATION OCCURS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS OF THAW WILL BE CRITICAL TO DETERMINING WHETHER A SNOW MELT/HEAVY RAIN COMBINATION COULD OVERWHELM A FEW OF OUR MORE SUSCEPTIBLE RIVERS/STREAMS. STAY TUNED. LASTLY...A SYSTEM OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE TROWAL REGION CARVED OUT IN THE W/NW QUADRANT. A SLIGHT ALTERATION IN THE STORM TRACK COULD ALLOW A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TO UNDERCUT THE SYSTEM ACROSS FAR NW MO...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY BANDED SNOWFALL. ALTHOUGH PROSPECTS FOR THIS SCENARIO ARE FAR MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN STORM TRACK COULD UNFOLD AN INTERESTING SCENARIO ACROSS MY FAR NW COUNTIES. GIVEN THE VARIETY OF UNKNOWNS AT THIS POINT...PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LIGHT SNOW AND VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW AND NO CHANCES WERE MADE. LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIP/LOW CLOUDS WILL PLAGUE THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER NRN AREAS AS COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOOKBINDER && EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 100 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-201200- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 100 PM CST MON FEB 19 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAY ALLOW AREAS TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH THE RAPID SNOWMELT AND THAW EXPECTED THIS WEEK...COULD LEAD TO VERY RAPID RISES ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. LASTLY...AS THIS STORM LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SNOW COULD WRAP BACK INTO THESE AREAS...ANY THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY. BOOKBINDER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow and ice melt caused the Petite Saline Creek near Boonville to crest at 17.30 feet, or 1.30 feet above flood stage.
Snow and ice melt caused the Blackwater River near Valley City to crest at 22.50 feet, or 0.50 feet above flood stage.
Snow and ice melt caused flooding on the Blackwater River near Blue Lick to crest at 25.31 feet, or 1.31 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 16139, 16135, 16137.