Hail in Minnesota, September 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
613 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER FAR NE FA
AS STARTING TO GET LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH STRONGER CELLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007/

SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED FROM SASK
PROVINCE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WAS RESULTING IN ACTIVE SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER CWFA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING
500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION WHICH DID A BETTER JOB WITH
PROGGED SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AT (12Z-18Z). MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE THE STELLAR OF THE TWO MODELS IN ADDITION MODEL CONTINUES
TO COME IN WITH SLOWER SOLUTION WITH EVENTUAL PROPAGATION OF
UPSTREAM TROUGH WITH EACH SUCCESIVE RUN.

ACTIVE PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR CWFA STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E RICH AIR IS TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD ON THE NOSE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. APPEARS
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRESENT INDICATIONS...PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO
CONVECTION TO BE ROOTED AROUND 850MB LEVEL I.E.  WITH
SHOWALTER INDICES SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE THREAT. BASED ON
PROJECTED TRACK/CURRENT SPEED OF TROUGH APPEARS THAT BEST
THREAT FOR STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...HOWEVER
UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC PUTS A LARGE MAJORITY OF CWFA IN
A SLIGHT RISK. AHEAD OF TROUGH BALMY TEMPS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MERCURY TO FLIRT WITH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
COOL DOWN THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 500MB TROF MOVING THROUGH. FLOW THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL AND THEN
TO THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT 500MB TROF. THEREFORE...KEPT FORECAST
CONTINUITY WITH KEPT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR TUE THROUGH THU. AS FAR
AS TEMPS...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

AVIATION...VFR SKY AND VSBY WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291215-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
701 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 10 PM. AFTER 10
PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
MINNESOTA. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE AREA HAS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DTR