Hail in Minnesota, May 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX LIFTS FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HIGHEST THREAT
LOCALLY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...ROUGHLY FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MONTEVIDEO
AND WESTWARD. THIS AREA IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT
AND MCV...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AT
20Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CWA CLOSELY FOR
NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOGENESIS...AS 20Z RUC/LAPS BOTH HIGHLIGHTED
THAT AREA WITH A CORRELATED POCKET OF ENHANCED 0-3KM MLCAPE AND
SURFACE VORTICITY. AFOREMENTIONED AREA ALSO HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AREA
OF SURFACE THETA E CONVERGENCE...PER 20Z LAPS DATA. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL /AROUND 6.5 C/KM/ SO EXPECT ANY HAIL TO
HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THE SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHES WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWA...WHERE LOWER
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED.

OF NEXT CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL MN. COUPLED UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE COUPLET IS PROGGED TO SET UP
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS...SO ANTICIPATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TO OCCUR WEST OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT IT TO BE A GOOD
SOAKER...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
MN /WHERE PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES/.

THE BLOCKING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG EASTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL
CAUSE THE UPPER LOW TO MAKE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH YIELDS LINGERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... /FOR 18Z TAFS/

SINCE MID MRNG RATHER WDSPRD CU/SC HAS DVLPD ACRS MUCH OF MN INTO W
WI IN INCRSG MOIST AIRMASS.  SHORTWAVE NR KMKC TO KOMA LIFTING NE
ALSO APPEARS TO BE WHAT IS HELPING THE SHWRS AND ISOL TSTMS ALNG FM
W WI TO W MN.  BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY SML HAIL WOULD BE IN W MN
VCNTY SFC FNT...BUT PRBLY W OF KAXN.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

LS/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO TEXT WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
556 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL BE THE MAIN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TO ENGAGE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE
UPCOMING FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WEDNESDAY IS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. RAINFALL REPORTS
WILL BE APPRECIATED.