Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, May 29 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG OUR STATIONARY
FRONT IN NW KS/SW NE AS A WEAK S/W TROF CROSSES INTO WRN KS/SW NE.
WEAK FLOW PRESENT ALOFT PER UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND PROFILERS SO
EXPECT THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BE SLOW MOVERS. LATEST RADAR TENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT
THIS AND THEREFORE USED THE THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION OF PCPN
CROSSING OUR CWA AS A FIRST GUESS WHICH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN CWA
DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER THAN MOVING THE PCPN ACROSS THE
CWA SLOWER IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THE RIGHT
IDEA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST QPF
VALUES REMAIN CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WHERE
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS EARLY IN
THE EVENT WILL BE. AS A RESULT STILL THINK THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MAIN UPPER S/W TROF PROGGED BY
ALL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO
WILL NOT GET IN A RUSH TO TAPER PCPN OR DECREASE CLOUDS UNTIL S/W
TROF AND CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF OUR
COLD FRONT BUT WHERE THIS FRONT WILL BE BY 00Z THURSDAY IS
UNCLEAR. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH THERE WE MAY SEE SOME LATE DAY STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SE CO THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATION AND THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN BEING WITH OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL FOLLOW THEIR LEAD AND MENTION
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONGER S/W TROF WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 25H JET WILL THEN CROSS INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE
THURSDAY. OUR FRONT LOCATED IN WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS SW KS AS A WARM FRONT.
AS MOISTURE AND WAA DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT OVER SW KS LATE
IN THE DAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

QUESTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED CENTER AROUND TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SITUATED FROM NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PER
NEW 12Z ECMWF MSLP PATTERN AND 850MB WINDS.  13C DEWPOINTS AS SHOWN
IN GFS AND ECMWF CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED TSTM CHANCES.
WILL GO WITH 30 POPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A RULE WITH 20 POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA SATURDAY.  THE SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME WILL
CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRONOUNCED PACIFIC JET
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE PAC NORTHWEST REGION WITH MID-UPPER HEIGHT
RISES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE JET.  WILL START
TO SEE WARMING OVER THE ROCKIES AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL SPREAD OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS BY ABOUT TUESDAY.  IN THE FAR EXTENDED...IT LOOKS
LIKE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH INCREASED PACIFIC
JET ENERGY/TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST MORE SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY MOST OF THE SEVERE MAY END
UP BEING NORTH OF THE DDC CWA. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...

TIMING OF STORMS AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE.
CURRENT SET OF TAFS HAVE STORMS ENTERING GCK/DDC/HYS AROUND 05 TO
06Z...WHICH IS BASED ON THE ORGANIZED MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.  ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP CB CLOUD IN
THERE FOR THE EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME.  FUTURE TAF UPDATES THIS
EVENING SHOULD NAIL DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING WITH MORE CERTAINTY
AS THEY DEVELOP AND BECOME TRACKABLE.  LOOK FOR WIND SHIFT WITH THE
FRONT AROUND THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12-15
KNOTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  73  52  78 /  50  50  10  20
GCK  54  72  52  78 /  90  20  10  10
EHA  55  73  53  80 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  58  74  51  80 /  60  30  20  40
HYS  56  73  50  77 / 100 100  10   0
P28  61  74  55  80 /  90  90  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065.

&&

FN18/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-301000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007 /411 AM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES, THE STORMS WILL BE WORKING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ON THURSDAY TO GENERATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ066-074>081-084>090-301000-
STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-
MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
511 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN ON THURSDAY TO GENERATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD