Hail in Minnesota, June 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WRMFNT WL LIFT NWD THRU CWA DURING NITE. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL
ALSO CONT TO LIFT NEWD WITH CELLS MOVG EWD. BY LATER EVE...PRECIP
SHUD BE OVER AND ALSO WL LOSE ITS PUNCH WITH SUNSET.

ON SUN...STG SLY WNDS SHUD DEVELOP BY MID MORN WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF A CDFNT WHICH WL MOVE ACRS CWA SUN NITE AND MON
MORN. WND ADVY WL PBLY BE NEEDED ON SUN. CAPPING WL PREVENT TRW
DEVELOPMENT ACRS CWA DURING THE DAY...BUT TRW SHUD DEVELOP ALONG FNT
ACRS CNTRL SD AND THEN MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY E SUN NITE INTO MON MORN.
WILL BUMP UP POPS ACRS CWA SUN NITE INTO MON MORN. SVR PSBL SUN NITE
WRN CWA WITH HAIL AND WND THE MAIN THREAT. SVR THREAT SHUD WANE AS
STORMS MOVE EWD WITH POT FOR HVY RAIN INSTEAD. SHUD BE QUITE WARM
ACRS CWA ON SUN AND CURRENT FCST HIGHS DO LOOK GOOD.

MODELS SIMILAR IN PUSHING FNT THRU ERN CWA BY 18Z MON. THIS SHUD END
CHC OF TRW ACRS ALL OF CWA BY AFTN. COOLER AIR BEHIND FNT WL LIMIT
HIGH IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MON.

IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS NOW SEEM TO AGREE ON WEAK RIDGING OVR NRN
PLAINS WITH ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWING UPPER LOW OVER CWA. SMALL THREAT
OF PRECIP IN THE LONG RANGE WITH WEAK S/W IN WLY FLOW. HARD TO TIME
THESE FEATURES AND WL BE SPOTTY AT BEST SO WL LEAVE WED THRU SAT
DRY. ONLY DECENT WAVE MODELS AGREE ON IS TUES/TUES EVE AND LLM IS
LACKING. IF PRECIP CAN DEVELOP IT WL BE MID LEVL BASED AND SPOTTY.
SO WL KEEP 20% GOING TUE INTO TUES EVE. TEMPS WL BE SEASONABLE TUES
INTO THU WITH SOME WARMING BY NEXT WEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD MOST OF THE VISIBILITY AND CIG ISSUES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL PREVAIL
ARND KHON THRU MUCH OF AFTN WITH DECAYING MCS WORKING EWRD.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PERSISTENT AND
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARD I90 DURING THE
AFTN AND EVE...WITH LKLY THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-171200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
JAMES VALLEY MIDDAY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LITTLE
PEA SIZE HAIL. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING
ALONG A LINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.

FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL JAMES VALLEY FOR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND THE
RECENT WET PERIOD...SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS IS
LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL FOR
AREAS WEST OF A HURON TO PLANKINTON LINE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
AREAS FARTHER EAST...UP THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND MARSHALL...SEEING
A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM THROUGH 9 PM IN
AREAS FROM AROUND HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER IOWA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
121 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       IROQUOIS                44.37N 97.85W
06/16/2007  M0.75 INCH       KINGSBURY          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 40 MINUTES.

&&

CJANSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLTON                  43.79N 96.93W
06/16/2007                   MINNEHAHA          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ABOUT 3 INCHES RAIN CAUSED STREET FLOODING WITH UP TO A
            FOOT OF WATER IN THE STREETS

&&

RRYRHOLM