A surge of arctic air moved across the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan. A significant single band of lake effect snow developed and meandered across parts of far southwestern Lower Michigan.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A surge of arctic air moved across the relatively warm waters of Lake Michigan. A significant single band of lake effect snow developed and meandered across parts of far southwestern Lower Michigan. In general accumulations of 6 to 10 inches were seen into St Joseph county. However, where the band perisisted for over 24 hours, extreme snowfall amounts occured with accumulations of 15 inches in Benton Harbor area to 20 inches in Stevensville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 27, 5:46 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
546 AM EST SAT JAN 27 2007
.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY EXPANDING AS FIRST
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS NOW IN PLACE AT BOTH SITES AND SEE
NO REASON FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT GIVEN INCREASING FLOW OFF THE LAKE
ENHANCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ONLY QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW LOW
CIGS/VSBYS MAY GO ESPECIALLY AS SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT MAINLY TOWARDS KSBN. HAVE BEGUN TO ADD SOME
DETAIL TO TIME OUT ARRIVAL OF FIRST SHORT WAVE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KSBN AND VFR VSBY/MVFR
CIGS AT KFWA. AS ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF IN KFWA...INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF SNOWSHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT KSBN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS 2ND FRONT AND WAVE DROP IN. HAVE BROUGHT
CONDITIONS WELL INTO MVFR RANGE AND EVEN TEMPO IFR FOR VSBY IN
HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS. THESE REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE AS EXACT BAND
PLACEMENT WILL NEED TO BE ASCERTAINED TO ADD FURTHER DETAIL TO THE
TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRST COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA...GENERALLY CLEARING
THE NW QUARTER OR SO ALREADY. MAIN EFFECT HAS BEEN WINDS SHIFTING
TO WEST AND VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S STARTING
THEIR FALL. EXPECTING HIGHS IN MOST AREA FIRST THING WITH STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LARGE LOW CLOUD AREA
EXPANDING ON SAT OVER PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM THE LAKE AS WINDS BECOME MORE WEST AND NW EXPECTED CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH. NO PRECIP HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE
MUCH INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
MIDDAY...DELTA T/S AND WNW FLOW OFF THE LAKE SHOULD START TO GET
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE GOING...BUT INVERSION HGTS STILL GENERALLY
BELOW 6K FT. HOWEVER..LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO SCT SNOWSHOWERS
IN MANY LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE WENT WITH SCT WORDING ACROSS THE
NORTH AND KEPT THINGS TONED DOWN A BIT SOUTH AND AWAIT FULL
EFFECTS OF WAVE TO THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF FZDZ FROM
ZONES AND JUST WENT WITH BROAD BRUSH SNOWSHOWERS.
BEHIND THIS WAVE IS WHERE POOL OF INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -15 TO -17 RANGE AND
THEN REMAINING THERE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDEST CORE OF TEMPS NOW
LOOKS TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BUT EVEN WITH TEMPS AS
ADVERTISED...DELTA T/S STILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 C OR GREATER.
INVERSION HGTS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY INCREASE TO CLOSER TO 15K
FEET. WHAT REMAINS OF CONCERN IS EXACT FLOW OFF THE LAKE WHICH MAY
VARY ANYWHERE FROM 290 TO 340 DEGREES. 00Z NAM KEPT MUCH OF THE
THE BEST OMEGA ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN LWR MI...BUT 6Z RUN HAS COME
BACK AROUND TO MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF BAND SETTING UP SE FROM THE
LAKE. WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH AREA ALIGNING NICELY WITH RATHER DEEP
MSTR...SEE NO REASON WHY HEAVY SNOW WON/T MATERIALIZE OVER THE WATCH
AREA. SINCE BEST WINDOW FOR HEAVY SNOW IS ON SUNDAY...HAVE OPTED
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AND DEFER TO DAY SHIFT.
TEMPWISE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BOTH AT NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE WITH COLD TEMPS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE
LAKE. HAVE NOT GONE TOO CRAZY AS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS GOING EVEN
COLDER IN AREAS OF SNOW COVER AND LOWER CLOUD COVER EXISTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
UPR LVL RIDGE WILL PARK ITSELF ACRS THE PAC NW/FAR WRN CANADA WHILE
MEAN TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACRS ERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AND THE ERN UNITED STATES. SVRL S/WVS WILL DIVE SE OUT OF
THE WRN PROVINCES OF CANADA...THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING CHC/S FOR SNOW. WITH COLD AIR
MOVING ACRS THE WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
ON MONDAY...THE FCST REGION WILL BE IN A LULL BETWEEN S/WVS. WITH
DRIER LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING ACRS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWERING...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
COMPARED TO SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A 30 POP ACRS THE NRN THIRD
OF THE CWFA AS MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE AROUND 280 DEGREES.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER S/WV WILL DIVE SE FROM THE WRN
WESTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS UPR
LVL ENERGY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE
FCST AREA...SO HAVE ADDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE TO ALL LOCATIONS.
ON TUESDAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS LAKE MICHIGAN WARRANTS A CHC OF
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ELSEWHERE...LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINLY BRING A CHC OF FLURRIES.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A RESPITE IN SNOW ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACRS THE AREA. THE
LOW LVL MEAN FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SW IN NATURE...PUSHING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODIFY SOME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC HIGH ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCD COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE TRAIN OF S/WVS FROM CANADA
WILL CONTINUE...KEEPING THE CHC SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR INZ003>005.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MIZ077-078.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FISHER
LONG TERM....HICKMANThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy snowfall amounts occured with accumulations of 15 inches in Benton Harbor area to 20 inches in Stevensville. The snow was accumulations at the rate of 1 to 3 inches per hour at times.
Law Enforcement officials in Cassopolis reported 8.3 inches of snow.
Law enforcement officials reported 8 inches of snow in Howardsville and 6 inches in Centreville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 12626, 12627, 12628.