A north-northwest flow in the wake of an upper disturbance brought heavy lake effect snowfall to Alger, Luce and northern Schoolcraft counties from the 14th through the early morning hours of the 16th.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A north-northwest flow in the wake of an upper disturbance brought heavy lake effect snowfall to Alger, Luce and northern Schoolcraft counties from the 14th through the early morning hours of the 16th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 3:45 AM EST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 345 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED UPR LO OVER ONTARIO N OF LK SUP OVER CORE OF VERY COLD AIRMASS. 00Z H5/H7/ H85 TEMPS AT YPL -43C/-27C/-24C. LARGER SCALE LGT NE FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS ADVECTING THIS COLDER AIR INTO THE UPR GRT LKS AND CAUSING LES. THE APRCH OF A SHRTWV NOW MOVING ACRS LK SUP CAUSED SOME ENHANCED SN OVER THE KEWEENAW LAST EVNG...AND A SPOTTER FM MOHAWK IN KEWEENAW COUNTY REPORTED 5-6 BTWN 5 PM AND 10 PM AS THIS SYS INTERACTED WITH A MESOLO NOW MOVING OVER SCNTRL LK SUP THAT HAS FORMED WITH INSTABILITY OVER THE LK/LGT WIND REGIME. STLT IMAGERY... PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV TO THE E...AND REDUCED LLVL CONFLUENCE BTWN CMX/P59 SUG LES HAS PROBABLY DIMINISHED IN THIS AREA. IN GENERAL... THE LES ELSEWHERE HAS BEEN ON THE LGT SIDE WITH DRY AIR SHOWN IN THE LLVLS OF THE 00Z GRB/INL RAOBS. LES IS COMPLETELY ABSENT OVER THE FAR E WHERE LGT ELY FLOW HAS ADVECTED VERY DRY LLVL AIR OFF ONTARIO INTO THAT AREA. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS N OF LK SUP IS VERY DRY IN THE SFC-H9 LYR PER 00Z YPL RAOB AND DWPTS IN THE -20F TO -30F RANGE... YPL RAOB INDICATES THE H875-55 LYR ABV INVRN BASE AT TOP OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS RATHER MOIST. ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING S ON THE WRN FLANK OF PARENT ONTARIO CLOSED LO NOTED NR LK WINNIPEG. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REVOLVE ARND LES TRENDS/ AMTS/NEED FOR HEADLINES. IN THE LARGER SCALE TDAY...00Z GFS/NAM/CNDN/UKMET CONSISTENT ON SHOWING SHRTWV NOW OVER LK WINNIPEG MOVING SE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS THIS AFTN AND PULLING PARENT CLOSED LO SE AS WELL TO NEAR CYXZ BY 00Z ALONG WITH DEEPER MID LVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z YPL RAOB. DESPITE INCRSD MID LVL MSTR...LLVLS WL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE. ARRIVAL OF COLDER H85 AIR (FCST TEMPS -23C TO -24C) WL ALSO LIMIT SN GROWTH POTENTIAL. DESPITE SOME PVA ASSOCIATED WITH LK WINNIPEG SHRTWV...NAM/GFS SHOW LARGER SCALE H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC AS CAD APRNTLY WL EXCEED CONTRIBUTION FM PVA TO FORCE GENERAL LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE TRENDS TDAY...COMPLEX LLVL WIND FLOW WITH MESOLO NOW OVER SCNTRL LK SUP WL COMPLICATE FCST LES COVG. RUC13 MODEL HAS HAD SUPERIOR HANDLE ON LLVL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MESOLO IN RECENT DAYS...SO WL RELY HEAVILY ON ITS GUIDANCE FOR DETAILS OF WIND FIELD/EXPECTED LES PLACEMENT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE LARGER SCALE TRENDS/ STRONGER WINDS OVERWHELM SMALLER SCALE RESPONSE. RUC13 SHOWS AREA OF SHSN OVER SCNTRL LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH MESOLO THAT IS NOW DRIFTING INTO MQT COUNTY WL IMPACT THAT AREA THRU 09Z BEFORE STRENGTHENING LAND BREEZE FLOW PUSH THE MESOLO N AGAIN TOWARD STDM4. RUC13 INDICATES THIS TRACK WL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF LES WITH INCRSD CNVGC OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW AFT 09Z. SO ALTHOUGH SHORTER TERM TRENDS SUG LES HAS DIMINISHED AND ADVY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...WL UPGRADE ADVY TO WRNG WITH EXPECTATION THAT AN ADDITIONAL 4 OF SNOW WL FALL THERE SOMETIME BTWN 10 PM LAST EVNG AND 5 PM THIS AFTN TO REACH 10/24 HR THRESHOLD. NAM FCST SHARPER H95 CNVGC OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY AGAIN LATER THIS MRNG LOOKS SIMILAR TO RUC...INCRSG CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST. AS SHRTWV APRCHS LATER IN THE DAY AND INCREASES THE NNW WIND... RUC13 SHOWS VORTEX BEING PUSHED FM CNTRL LK SUP TO NEAR P53 BY 00Z THU...WITH INCRSG LLVL CNVGC IN MQT COUNTY 18Z-03Z. GFS/NAM TEND TO FOCUS THE LLVL CNVGC INTO ALGER COUNTY. SINCE VORTEX HAS BEEN SUCH A RESILIENT CREATURE...WL FOLLOW RUC13 MORE CLOSELY THRU THE DAY AND POST LES ADVY FOR MQT COUNTY FOR MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVNG SN WITH RUC QPF APRCHG 0.25 INCH. EXPECT SUB ADVY SNOWS OVER THE REST OF THE W WITH SHORTER FETCH AND NEGATIVES MENTIONED ABV... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RECENT ICE DVLPMNT. OTRW...EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AWAY FM LK INFLUENCE. WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWER NGM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS WITH INFLUX OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. CLOSED H5 LO PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO SE ONTARIO BY 12Z THU...WITH STRONGER NNW FLOW DVLPG IN ITS WAKE FOCUSING LLVL CNVGC INTO FAR ERN MQT COUNTY-ALGER COUNTY AS WELL AS ONTONAGON COUNTY AS SHOWN BY GFS/NAM H95 WIND FIELDS. RUC13 SHIFTS FOCUSED CNVGC INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY AFT EARLY EVNG...BUT LINGERING VORTEX POSITIONED JUST SE OF P53 MAINTAINS MORE OF A LAND BREEZE FLOW IN ERN ALGER COUNTY. GIVEN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF LLVL WIND FIELDS THAT WOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THE MESOLO...WL TEND MORE TOWARD THE GFS/NAM SCENARIO. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHRTWV FCST TO FALL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LO TO ARRIVE OVERNGT AND MAINTAIN DEEPER MSTR. STRONGER NNW WIND OFF LK SUP/LK INFLUENCE WL MODERATE MIN TEMPS A BIT...SO BLENDED PREVIOUS FCST TMINS WITH A BIT HIER RECENT GFS MOS GUIDANCE. ON THU...HGTS BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY IN THE WAKE OF REINFORCING SHRTWV. 00Z UKMET/CNDN/ECMWF ARE QUICKER TO RAISE THE HGTS THAN THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM (SLOWEST)...SO TENDED A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS TO TIME ARRIVAL OF DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/DRYING/MORE ACYC FLOW FM THE W...WITH LLVL WINDS BACKING WNW FASTER WITH APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS. THIS DRYING/WSHFT WL CAUSE SGNFT LES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E OF P53 IN THE AFTN. CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LES TNGT INTO INTO THU MRNG IN FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL...ISSUED LES ADVY FOR ALGER/ NRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS TNGT/THU. FASTER DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MSTR TMRW SHOULD PREVENT WRNG AMTS FM BEING REACHED. LINGERING LES WL END THU NGT WITH ARRIVAL OF RDG AXIS. ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES (PWAT CLOSE TO 0.10 INCH)...SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF HI CENTER WELL TO THE S AS WELL AS INCRSG HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHRTWV WL PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING TOO FAR. THEN NEXT CHC OF LGT -SN ON FRI WITH ARPCH OF RATHER WEAK SHRTWV. COORDINATED WITH APX. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TDAY MIZ001. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TDAY-TNGT MIZ005. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TNGT-THU MIZ006-085. && KC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Twelve inches of snowfall in 12 hours was reported by an observer in Munising.
The sheriff's department reported 10 inches of snowfall in 3 hours five miles west of Seney. Visibility was near zero in heavy snow.
Eleven inches of snowfall was reported in 24 hours by an observer 10 miles east of Deer Park.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 16448, 16453, 16462.